Jets vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Why Toronto is favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [1/1/2026]

The Toronto Maple Leafs will face the Winnipeg Jets in NHL action at Scotiabank Arena on New Year's Day, starting at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven NHL model projects the Maple Leafs as the most likely winner of the Jets vs. Maple Leafs game.

This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Jets vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NHL game between the Jets and Maple Leafs 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Maple Leafs a 54% chance of defeating the Jets.

According to our model, the Jets (+1.5) have a 67% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6-goal over/under has a 51% chance of staying under.

Jets vs. Maple Leafs odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Jets	Maple Leafs
Puck Line	+1.5 (-210)	-1.5 (+194)
Moneyline	+115	-125
Total	o6 (-110)	u6 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Jets vs. Maple Leafs picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Maple Leafs -1.5	+194
Moneyline	Jets	+115
Total	Under 6	-110

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Maple Leafs -1.5 at the spread.

Jets vs. Maple Leafs player props

Who will score a goal in Jets vs. Maple Leafs?

According to our model, Auston Matthews is most likely to score an anytime goal in Jets vs. Maple Leafs.

Our projections give Matthews a 43.7% chance of scoring a goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the star is a 9.5% chance of registering the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Winnipeg Jets

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Kyle Connor	38.5%
Mark Scheifele	34.6%
Gabriel Vilardi	33.4%
Josh Morrissey	16.3%
Morgan Barron	15.8%

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	43.7%
John Tavares	34.0%
Matthew Knies	28.9%
Bobby McMann	25.8%
Matias Maccelli	21.2%

First goal scorer predictions

Winnipeg Jets

Player	First Goal Probability
Kyle Connor	7.9%
Mark Scheifele	6.9%
Gabriel Vilardi	6.8%
Josh Morrissey	3.1%
Cole Perfetti	3.1%

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	First Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	9.5%
John Tavares	7.0%
Matthew Knies	5.3%
Bobby McMann	4.3%
Matias Maccelli	4.1%

Jets vs. Maple Leafs game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's game between the Maple Leafs and Jets at Scotiabank Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Winnipeg Jets vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
• Date: Thursday, January 1, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Scotiabank Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Maple Leafs, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat the Jets on New Year's Day.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Jets vs. Maple Leafs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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