Will Christian Pulisic play and can USMNT beat Australia without him?

The United States men's national team heads to the Pacific Northwest riding a wave of momentum after their 4-1 opening-match demolition of Paraguay. But, USMNT veteran Christian Pulisic is nursing a calf injury and is in significant doubt for today's crucial Group D clash of USA vs. Australia on Friday, June 19, throwing World Cup betting into limbo.

Both the USA and Australia sit on three points after Matchday 1 after the Socceroos pulled off a 2-0 upset over Türkiye, which means this game could effectively decide who tops the group. The stakes couldn't be higher, and Pulisic might be stuck on the bench watching it all.

Will the USMNT need another 2-goal game from Folarin Balogun to come out on top? Let's see what the Dimers Pro data says about their chances and who will step up on Friday.

Will Christian Pulisic play?

The short answer: probably not, and Dimers' current USA vs. Australia predictions appear to reflect that, factoring in his likely absence from the lineup.

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Pulisic recorded an assist in the opening match, but he didn't return after halftime, having taken a knock to his calf. Since then, he has not trained fully with the squad, working off to the side.

Can USA win without Christian Pulisic?

The numbers say yes, and fairly comfortably. Dimers' predictive model gives the United States a 55.2% chance of winning today, with Australia at 20.7% and a draw even more likely than a Socceroos victory at 24.0%. That advantage exists with Pulisic's absence already priced in.

From a more granular perspective, the most likely final scores reinforce USA's favored position:

The 1-0 win is the single most probable outcome, and it's perhaps telling that two of the three most likely results are clean-sheet victories for the USMNT. In fact, there's a 32.0% chance USA wins without conceding a goal, keeing the opposition scoreless in nearly a third of all simulations.

Bettors seeking safety in numbers might look at the double chance market, where the USA to win or draw sits at a substantial 79.3%.

With over/under 2.5 goals virtually split down the middle (51.1% chance of going under), this could be a tightly contested affair decided by a single moment of quality, and the USA have the players to provide it.

The top USMNT goalscorers without Pulisic

Speaking of the USA squad, based on the Dimers projections and the form shown against Paraguay, here are the three American players most likely to make the difference today.

1. Folarin Balogun — 36.5% Chance to Score

If anyone was born for this moment, it's Folarin Balogun, who enters today's match as the first American player to score a brace in a World Cup match since Bert Patenaude in 1930. His two goals helped propel the USA to their highest-ever World Cup goal tally in a single game.

Dimers has Balogun at a 36.5% chance of scoring anytime according to the Dimers World Cup Player Projections, by far the highest of any player in this fixture. He also carries a 7.4% chance of scoring twice or more, a 16.3% chance of netting the first goal of the game, and is projected for 3.1 shots and 1.3 shots on target in the match. With Pulisic likely absent, Balogun won't just be the focal point, he'll be the danger man every Australian defender must gameplan around.

2. Malik Tillman — 21.3% Chance to Score

The 22-year-old has been one of the most quietly impressive performers in the USMNT setup, and his 21.3% goalscoring probability puts him firmly in dangerous territory.

Without Pulisic's creativity on the attack, Tillman's instinct to arrive late into the box and drive through the middle becomes even more valuable.

He's projected for 2.1 shots and carries an 8.3% chance of scoring the first goal, second among all players in this match. With freedom to push forward and a direct line to Balogun ahead of him, Tillman could be the surprise package of the afternoon.

3. Weston McKennie — 16.7% Chance to Score

Don't sleep on the big midfielder from Juventus. McKennie is a classic box-to-box presence who loves to arrive on the end of crosses and set pieces, and if the USA presses and dominates possession, the more opportunities he'll have to ghost into dangerous positions.

At 16.7% to score and 6.5% to net the first goal, McKennie represents longshot upside in a game where the USMNT are projected to take the initiative according to Dimers' model.

He's been a reliable big-game contributor for the national team and could see more of the ball in advanced areas than usual.

United States vs. Australia match details

• Teams: Australia vs. United States
• Date: Friday, June 19, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET
• Venue: Lumen Field
• Tournament: FIFA World Cup

Current betting odds

• Moneyline: Australia +425, United States -160, draw +350
• Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-110/-105)

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