NFL Week 8 First Touchdowns: Expert Analysis and TD Parlay on Sunday

Betting on first touchdown scorers in NFL games is one of the most exciting and potentially lucrative propositions in sports betting. When multiple first touchdown bets are combined into a touchdown parlay or Round Robin, these touchdown predictions can help turn a modest wager into a significant payout.

As Week 8 of the NFL season rolls into a massive Sunday slate of games for National Tight Ends Day, our proprietary betting model has crunched the numbers, analyzing matchups, red-zone efficiency, defensive vulnerabilities, and historical performance to identify the players with the highest probability of scoring the first touchdown.

This week's analysis of our NFL player projections hub reveals a strong lean toward powerful running backs with high-volume roles, as several key matchups point to a run-heavy approach early on.

As we do every week, we've compiled our famous first touchdown Round Robin, made up five first TD NFL prop bets backed by the Dimers model probabilities, giving you a clear, data-driven edge for the Week 8 Sunday NFL slate.

This week, we've embraced National Tight Ends Day and featured five of our most prominent touchdown probabilities at the position.

NFL First Touchdown Scorers: Week 8 (Sunday, Oct 26, 2025)

There's a mix of value, strong probabilities and favorable positional matchups for our first touchdown picks in Week 8, with all players showing odds of at least +650. Several players has also seen their First TD probability rise slightly since we debuted these picks on the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast.

We have analyzed these guys, their respective probability of scoring the first touchdown, the current odds, and the key reasons why our model has tagged them as high-value first touchdown bets.

1. Tyler Warren (IND)

Matchup details:

• Game: Colts vs. Titans

• Date: Sunday, October 26, 2025
• Time: 4:25 PM ET
• Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium

Colts rookie Tyler Warren enters Week 8 as the most likely tight end to score the first TD or find the end zone at any point, per Dimers’ projections, with an 8.4% first touchdown probability.

He’s scored in three straight games and remains a reliable red-zone weapon, ranking third among tight ends in red-zone targets with 9, and has scored four times inside the 20-yard line.

The Colts should move the ball early against a vulnerable Titans defense, giving Warren another strong chance to strike first.

Tyler Warren First TD odds: +650

2. Tucker Kraft (Packers)

Matchup details:

• Game: Packers vs. Steelers

• Date: Sunday, October 26, 2025
• Time: 8:20 PM ET
• Venue: Acrisure Stadium

Packers TE Tucker Kraft enters as our second-most likely tight end to score the first touchdown, with a 7.3% probability on Sunday Night Football.

Kraft draws a favorable matchup against a Steelers defense that struggles mightily versus tight ends, allowing 0.7 TDs and over eight targets per game to the position.

Kraft leads the team in receiving and is tied for the most touchdowns through the air, making him a prime anytime scorer option this week.

Tucker Kraft First TD odds: +650

3. George Kittle (SF)

Matchup details:

• Game: 49ers vs. Texans

• Date: Sunday, October 26, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: NRG Stadium

The founder of National Tight Ends Day, George Kittle looks poised to shine as one of the top projected touchdown scorers at his position, Kittle has a 7.3% probability of scoring the first TD vs. the Texans.

After serving mostly as a decoy in the run-heavy game plan last week, expect him to be more involved with a full week back in rhythm.

Houston will be missing multiple receivers on offense, putting them in a tough position to move the ball downfield, meaning the 49ers should control the tempo early and set up Kittle to score first.

George Kittle First TD odds: +900

4. Dallas Goedert (PHI)

Matchup details:

• Game: Eagles vs. Giants

• Date: Sunday, October 26, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Lincoln Financial Field

Eagles TE Dallas Goedert has been hyper-efficient in the red zone, catching all five of his targets for four touchdowns, and has a 6.4% probability to score the first touchdown.

Despite a solid overall defense, the Giants give up the fourth-most targets to tight ends, averaging more than nine per game.

With the Eagles eager to avenge their loss to New York, and WR AJ Brown ruled out with a hamstring injury, Goedert should be a key part of that plan.

Dallas Goedert First TD odds: +900

5. Jake Ferguson (DAL)

Matchup details:

• Game: Cowboys vs. Broncos

• Date: Sunday, October 26, 2025
• Time: 4:25 PM ET
• Venue: Empower Field at Mile High

The no. 1 tight end in the NFL this year, Jake Ferguson gets a 6.2% probability to score the first TD and at the longest odds of +!200.

The Cowboys’ TE has been on fire since Week 4 with over 20 targets and six touchdowns, including two multi-score games and will face a strong Denver defense, but one that is about the middle of the pack vs. the tight end position.

His red-zone usage (5 TDs on 11 targets) and chemistry with Dak Prescott make him a legitimate threat to score first on Sunday.

Jake Ferguson First TD odds: +1200

Dimers' Week 8 NFL First Touchdown parlay picks.

First Touchdown Scorers: Week 8 Round Robin Parlay

For bettors looking to leverage this data, a first touchdown Round Robin offers a balanced approach to maximizing potential returns, with less risk than a traditional NFL parlay. By combining these five players into a first touchdown Round Robin bet, you are pairing multiple players together in different combinations, allowing for a payout even if only two of the five players score the first TD in their respective games.

Given the strong probabilities and appealing odds, a NFL first touchdown Round Robin of 2, 3, 4, and 5-leg parlay combinations using this curated list is a high-entertainment strategy for Week 8. The total potential payout for a small stake on this first touchdown scorer group is significant, making it a cornerstone of our weekly betting strategy.