Apr 14, 2026
Dimers Partners with OG: Trade on Probabilities, Not Just Predictions
Read Article Tight Ends Day: Players to Target, Predictions, Touchdown Props in NFL Week 8
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
It's National Tight Ends Day in NFL Week 8! From the top scorers to our best tight end touchdown picks, here's your ultimate guide to betting on the NFL's most underappreciated position on Sunday.
Every October since 2018, the NFL has honored one of football’s most underrated positions: the tight end with National Tight Ends Day. Over the years, popularity around the holiday has grown as fans, players, the media, and the league all embrace the day, pushing tight ends to the focus of NFL parlays, touchdown picks and NFL player prop betting.
This NFL Sunday, October 26, marks the latest edition, first created in 2018 by George Kittle, which has since become an annual celebration of the big-bodied pass catchers who can do it all - block, score touchdowns, and occasionally hurdle linebackers.
Tight ends have dominated the past few Tight Ends Days, with last year setting a record 17 touchdowns scored by the position, the most since Kittle himself coined the term.
Among them were Kyle Pitts and Cade Otton, each finding the end zone twice in their Falcons-Bucs shootout.
Of those 17 scorers, seven topped 60 yards, and to no one's surprise, Kittle himself led all tight ends with 6 catches, 128 yards, and a TD in a masterful performance vs. the Dallas Cowboys.
Whether it’s a coincidence or embracing the spirit, quarterbacks seem to feed their tight ends a little extra on this pseudo-holiday.
Here's everything you need to know to bet on tight ends this week in the NFL.
Top 10 Tight End Touchdown Probabilities - NFL Week 8
The Dimers Pro NFL Projections Hub uses advanced simulation data to identify touchdown probabilities for every player, every game.
Here’s how the model sees Week 8 shaping up for tight ends:
| Player | Team | Matchup | TD Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Warren | IND | TEN vs. IND | 38.6% |
| Travis Kelce | KC | WAS vs. KC | 37.6% |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | GB vs. PIT | 35.8% |
| George Kittle | SF | SF vs. HOU | 31.6% |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | CHI vs. BAL | 31.43% |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | DAL vs. DEN | 30.6% |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | NYG vs. PHI | 29.64% |
| Hunter Henry | NE | CLE vs. NE | 29.55% |
| Dalton Schultz | HOU | SF vs. HOU | 28.89% |
| Zach Ertz | WAS | WAS vs. KC | 28.6% |
The model highlights a burgeoning star—Colts rookie Tyler Warren—atop the touchdown board, with veterans Travis Kelce and George Kittle close behind.
Several players projected among the top 10 in probability also rank in the top 10 for touchdowns this season, showing strong alignment between production and projection.
Highest-Projected Tight Ends in NFL Week 8
Not every tight end will find the end zone - 10 tight ends in total recorded at least 60 receiving yards on Tight Ends Day in 2024, proving plenty of upside is in play even without a score.
According to Dimers' projections, these are the top-rated tight ends this week based on their receiving yards projection:
| Player | Team | Matchup | PPR Points | Receptions | Receiving Yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Warren | IND | TEN vs. IND | 14.3 | 5.0 | 58.3 |
| George Kittle | SF | SF vs. HOU | 12.27 | 4.3 | 53.7 |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | GB vs. PIT | 12.47 | 4.4 | 51.6 |
| Dalton Schultz | HOU | SF vs. HOU | 11.86 | 4.7 | 48.5 |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | NYG vs. PHI | 11.43 | 4.3 | 47.9 |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL | MIA vs. ATL | 10.48 | 4.0 | 45.7 |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | DAL vs. DEN | 11.93 | 5.0 | 45.4 |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | BUF vs. CAR | 10.32 | 3.7 | 45.0 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | WAS vs. KC | 11.19 | 3.8 | 44.0 |
| Cade Otton | TB | TB vs. NO | 10.32 | 4.1 | 43.1 |
Rookie Tyler Warren shines once again as the top receiving tight end this season. Jake Ferguson is notably tied for the second-most receptions, but on the lower end for yards, suggesting a shorter ADOT (average depth of target).
Top Scoring Tight Ends This Season
The 2025 season has been rich with tight end production, led by a mix of familiar names and emerging threats.
Here are the top performers through seven weeks, sorted by touchdowns and excluding the players who are on bye this week:
| Player | Team | TGT | REC | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | 58 | 51 | 334 | 6 |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | 36 | 27 | 261 | 5 |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | 32 | 23 | 326 | 4 |
| Zach Ertz | WAS | 34 | 23 | 229 | 4 |
| Theo Johnson | NYG | 33 | 20 | 192 | 4 |
| Tyler Warren | IND | 45 | 33 | 439 | 3 |
| Hunter Henry | NE | 36 | 24 | 310 | 3 |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | 24 | 20 | 287 | 3 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | 40 | 31 | 375 | 2 |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | 27 | 21 | 174 | 2 |
Jake Ferguson’s six touchdowns pace all tight ends so far, while Tyler Warren’s 439 yards show the rookie’s growing role in Indianapolis’ high-efficiency attack.
Meanwhile, players like Dalton Kincaid and Tucker Kraft continue to produce despite fewer targets, proving that the tight end position remains as versatile as ever.
Defenses Most Vulnerable to Tight Ends
If you’re betting on tight ends this week—or setting DFS lineups—target these defenses, which have struggled mightily against the position:
Bengals: Allowing 1.3 TDs and 77 yards per game, with more than 10 targets per week. After getting shredded by Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers' TE corps. they remain the top matchup to exploit. Jets TE Mason Taylor is questionable this week, so backup TE Jeremy Ruckert could be a sneaky play.
Packers: Shockingly soft, giving up 0.8 TDs and 62.5 yards per game and a league-high 10.5 targets, will face a Steelers team that scored four tight end touchdowns last week.
Steelers: Despite featuring four tight ends on offense, the position causes headaches for the Steelers' defense, allowing 0.7 TDs and 67.2 yards per game. Look for Tucker Kraft, the Packers' leading receiver, to make waves on Sunday Night Football.
Jets: While they allow just 41.6 yards per game, they give up 0.9 TDs per game, the NFL’s second-worst mark. The Bengals have a lot of pass-catching options, but don't overlook Noah Fant in this one after he scored a
Panthers: Recently torched by Jake Ferguson for two touchdowns, allowing 67.9 yards and 0.6 TDs per game. If Dalton Kincaid is active, this could be an all-time game for him. If he sits, look for Dawson Knox to find the end zone.
Tight End Parlay for Tight Ends Day on NFL Sunday
Keep an eye out for our First Touchdown Round Robin this week, which will feature five tight ends, each to find the end zone first in their respective game.
Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2025-26 Season
- NFL Week 8 Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 8 matchup
- NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
- NFL Projections: BRAND NEW Player Projections Hub
- The Dimers Sports Betting Podcast: Watch the latest episode
- Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
- Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
- NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league
Responsible Gambling
Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.
Continue reading with Dimers Pro
Join now to unlock this article and get full access to our predictions and betting tools. Cancel anytime.
$0 for 3 days
then $14.99/week
Already a Pro member? Log in
New here? See everything Pro includes
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
Advertiser disclosure
