Commanders vs. Eagles prediction: Why Philadelphia is favored to win in NFL Week 18 [2026]

NFL Week 18 action continues on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET as the Washington Commanders lock horns with the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NFL model projects the Eagles as the most likely winner of the Commanders vs. Eagles game.

This article offers further insights into this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Commanders vs. Eagles prediction: Who will win and cover?

Since our Commanders-Eagles predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Commanders and Eagles 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Eagles a 63% chance of defeating the Commanders in Week 18 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Eagles winning 21-18.

According to our model, the Commanders (+3) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 38.5 points has a 55% chance of going over.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 18 straight up picks.

Commanders vs. Eagles odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Commanders	Eagles
Spread	+3 (-102)	-3 (-115)
Moneyline	+150	-174
Total	o38.5 (-110)	u38.5 (-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Commanders vs. Eagles picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Commanders +3	-102
Moneyline	Eagles	-174
Total	Over 38.5	-110

According to our best NFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Commanders +3 at the spread.

Commanders vs. Eagles TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Commanders vs. Eagles?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 18, Chris Rodriguez is most likely to score an anytime TD in Commanders vs. Eagles.

Our projections give Rodriguez a 40.4% chance of scoring a TD at Lincoln Financial Field, while the running back is a 9.5% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Washington Commanders

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Chris Rodriguez (RB)	40.4%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB)	34.2%
Terry McLaurin (WR)	26.5%
Deebo Samuel (WR)	23.4%
Treylon Burks (WR)	17.2%

Philadelphia Eagles

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Tank Bigsby (RB)	39.7%
Jahan Dotson (WR)	31.4%
Darius Cooper (WR)	28.4%
Will Shipley (RB)	27.9%
Grant Calcaterra (TE)	21.7%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Washington Commanders

Player	First TD Probability
Chris Rodriguez (RB)	9.5%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB)	7.7%
Terry McLaurin (WR)	5.7%
Deebo Samuel (WR)	4.9%
Treylon Burks (WR)	3.5%

Philadelphia Eagles

Player	First TD Probability
Tank Bigsby (RB)	10.1%
Jahan Dotson (WR)	7.5%
Darius Cooper (WR)	6.7%
Will Shipley (RB)	6.5%
Grant Calcaterra (TE)	4.9%

Commanders vs Eagles player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Commanders and Eagles. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 18 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Commanders' Josh Johnson is projected to have a quiet game with 181 passing yards, while the Eagles' Tanner McKee is expected to throw for 226 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Josh Johnson (WAS)	181
Tanner McKee (PHI)	226

Commanders rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Chris Rodriguez	52
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	30
Josh Johnson	16

Eagles rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Tank Bigsby	57
Will Shipley	26
AJ Dillon	16

Commanders receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Deebo Samuel	54
Terry McLaurin	50
Treylon Burks	31
Ben Sinnott	17
John Bates	15

Eagles receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Darius Cooper	45
Jahan Dotson	43
Grant Calcaterra	27
Britain Covey	27
Kylen Granson	14

Commanders vs. Eagles game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 18 game between the Eagles and Commanders at Lincoln Financial Field is scheduled to start at 4:25 PM ET.

• Who: Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles
• Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026
• Time: 4:25 PM ET/1:25PM PT
• Venue: Lincoln Financial Field

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Conclusion

We predict the Eagles, with a 63% win probability, will likely beat the Commanders in Week 18 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Commanders vs. Eagles insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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