Commanders vs. Giants prediction: Giants favored to win in NFL Week 15 [2025]

NFL Week 15 action continues on Sunday at 1:00PM ET as the Washington Commanders square off with the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NFL model projects the Giants as the most likely winner of the Commanders vs. Giants game.

This article offers further insights into this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Commanders vs. Giants prediction: Who will win and cover?

Since our Commanders-Giants predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Commanders and Giants 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Giants a 57% chance of beating the Commanders in Week 15 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Giants winning 23-21.

According to our model, the Commanders (+2.5) have a 58% chance of covering the spread, while the 45.5-point over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 15 straight up picks.

Commanders vs. Giants odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Commanders	Giants
Spread	+2.5 (+100)	-2.5 (-115)
Moneyline	+130	-145
Total	o45.5 (-110)	u45.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Commanders vs. Giants picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Commanders +2.5	+100
Moneyline	Commanders	+130
Total	Under 45.5	-105

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Commanders +2.5 at the spread.

Commanders vs. Giants TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Commanders vs. Giants?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Deebo Samuel is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Commanders vs. Giants.

Our projections give Samuel a 37.9% chance of scoring a TD at MetLife Stadium, while the running back is a 7.6% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Washington Commanders

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Deebo Samuel (WR)	37.9%
Terry McLaurin (WR)	37.5%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB)	36.5%
Jeremy McNichols (RB)	34.4%
Marcus Mariota (QB)	21.9%

New York Giants

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Devin Singletary (RB)	35.7%
Jaxson Dart (QB)	34.7%
Wan'Dale Robinson (WR)	33.5%
Theo Johnson (TE)	28.1%
Isaiah Hodgins (WR)	23.3%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Washington Commanders

Player	First TD Probability
Deebo Samuel (WR)	7.6%
Terry McLaurin (WR)	7.5%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB)	7.3%
Jeremy McNichols (RB)	6.7%
Marcus Mariota (QB)	4.0%

New York Giants

Player	First TD Probability
Devin Singletary (RB)	8.3%
Jaxson Dart (QB)	8.0%
Wan'Dale Robinson (WR)	7.6%
Theo Johnson (TE)	6.2%
Isaiah Hodgins (WR)	5.0%

Commanders vs Giants player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Commanders and Giants. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 15 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Commanders' Marcus Mariota is projected for 211 passing yards. The Giants' Jaxson Dart is expected to throw for 217 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Marcus Mariota (WAS)	211
Jaxson Dart (NYG)	217

Commanders rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	64
Marcus Mariota	36
Jeremy McNichols	21

Giants rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Tyrone Tracy	55
Devin Singletary	45
Jaxson Dart	29

Commanders receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Terry McLaurin	62
Deebo Samuel	48
Noah Brown	29
Ben Sinnott	16
John Bates	14

Giants receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Wan'Dale Robinson	64
Theo Johnson	43
Darius Slayton	41
Isaiah Hodgins	29
Tyrone Tracy	18

Commanders vs. Giants game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 15 game between the Giants and Commanders at MetLife Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:00PM ET.

• Who: Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants
• Date: Sunday, December 14, 2025
• Time: 1:00PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: MetLife Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Giants, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat the Commanders in Week 15 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Commanders vs. Giants insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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