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Commanders vs. Cowboys prediction: Dallas favored to win in NFL Week 7, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys predictions for NFL Sunday.
NFL Week 7 action continues on Sunday at 4:25PM ET as the Washington Commanders lock horns with the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Cowboys as the most likely winner of today's game.
"Using the most recent data, our experts ran 10,000 simulations of Sunday's Commanders-Cowboys game," said Dimers' Chief Content Officer, Nick Slade.
"After accounting for recent updates and other variables, our prediction shows the Cowboys with a win probability of 55%, while the Commanders have 45%."
This gameday Commanders vs. Cowboys betting preview builds on my Commanders vs. Cowboys prediction that was published earlier in the week.
For further insights into today’s game, including the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Commanders vs. Cowboys predictions page.
Commanders vs. Cowboys predictions
Since our Commanders-Cowboys predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Commanders and Cowboys 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Cowboys a 55% chance of beating the Commanders in Week 7 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Cowboys winning 27-26.
According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Commanders and Cowboys each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 54.5 points also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 7 straight up picks.
Commanders vs. Cowboys odds
We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Commanders | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +1.5 (-108) | -1.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +105 | -122 |
| Total | o54.5 (-118) | u54.5 (-104) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
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Commanders vs. Cowboys picks and best bets
Our model's strongest edge in today's Commanders vs. Cowboys matchup is on the moneyline.
Our expert predictions, matched against the current odds, reveal the best NFL picks and NFL best bets for every game throughout the season.
Unlimited access to our full suite of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.
Commanders vs. Cowboys TD scorers
Who will score the first touchdown in Commanders vs. Cowboys?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 7, Dallas' Javonte Williams is most likely to score the first touchdown in Commanders vs. Cowboys.
Our projections give Williams a 12.6% chance of scoring the first TD at AT&T Stadium, while the Cowboys running back is a 54.2% chance of scoring an anytime touchdown.
First touchdown scorer predictions
Washington Commanders
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB) | 10.4% |
| Zach Ertz (TE) | 7.5% |
| Jayden Daniels (QB) | 5.8% |
Dallas Cowboys
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Javonte Williams (RB) | 12.6% |
| CeeDee Lamb (WR) | 8.0% |
| George Pickens (WR) | 7.7% |
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Washington Commanders
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB) | 49.3% |
| Zach Ertz (TE) | 39.0% |
| Jayden Daniels (QB) | 31.8% |
Dallas Cowboys
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Javonte Williams (RB) | 54.2% |
| CeeDee Lamb (WR) | 38.9% |
| George Pickens (WR) | 37.7% |
Commanders vs Cowboys player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Commanders and Cowboys. For detailed projections, join Dimers Pro.
Already a Dimers Pro member? Head to our NFL player projections page now to access player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 7 games.
Commanders vs. Cowboys quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Commanders' Jayden Daniels is projected to throw for fewer yards than the Cowboys' Dak Prescott.
Commanders rushing
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Jayden Daniels and Chris Rodriguez are projected to be the leading rushers for the Commanders.
| Player | Position |
|---|---|
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB |
| Jayden Daniels | QB |
| Chris Rodriguez | RB |
Cowboys rushing
Javonte Williams, Jaydon Blue and Dak Prescott are expected to lead the Cowboys in rushing yards.
| Player | Position |
|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | RB |
| Jaydon Blue | RB |
| Dak Prescott | QB |
Commanders receiving
Zach Ertz, Luke McCaffrey, Chris Moore, Jaylin Lane and Jacory Croskey-Merritt are projected to top the receiving yards for the Commanders.
| Player | Position |
|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | TE |
| Luke McCaffrey | WR |
| Chris Moore | WR |
| Jaylin Lane | WR |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB |
Cowboys receiving
CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson, KaVontae Turpin and Javonte Williams are projected to lead the Cowboys in receiving yards.
| Player | Position |
|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | WR |
| George Pickens | WR |
| Jake Ferguson | TE |
| KaVontae Turpin | WR |
| Javonte Williams | RB |
Commanders vs. Cowboys game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 7 action between the Cowboys and Commanders at AT&T Stadium is scheduled to start at 4:25PM ET.
- Who: Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys
- Date: Sunday, October 19, 2025
- Time: 4:25PM ET/1:25PM PT
- Venue: AT&T Stadium
Dimers' in-depth preview of this week's Commanders vs. Cowboys matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.
Before making any Commanders vs. Cowboys picks, be sure to check out the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.
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Conclusion
We predict the Cowboys, with a 55% win probability, will likely beat the Commanders in Week 7 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Commanders vs. Cowboys insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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More on NFL
Keep up with the latest NFL news and NFL parlay picks throughout the season. Plus, our Super Bowl odds provide the latest probabilities for the Super Bowl, AFC, NFC and each division.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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