Washington Commanders 2022 Win Total Prediction, Computer Picks and Super Bowl Odds

Last updated: Dec 21, 2023, 12:11PM | Published: Jul 21, 2022, 7:56PM

The 2022 NFL season is firmly on the horizon and over the coming weeks the Dimers team will break down the chances of each and every team, all vying for Super Bowl 57 glory in Glendale, Arizona come February.

Let's take a look at the key factors to consider when betting on the Washington Commanders in 2022.

The Commanders may have been looking for a huge splash when they made the move to trade for veteran QB Carson Wentz this offseason, but it’s hard to get excited about the addition. The oft-injured signal caller didn’t overwhelm anyone in his lone season in Indianapolis, being unable to get the Colts to the playoffs despite support from a strong run game.

Washington Commanders Win Total Prediction, Computer Picks and Super Bowl Odds

Washington Commanders

2021 Record: 7-10, 3rd in the NFC East
2021 ATS: 6-11
Key off-season losses: Brandon Scherff G, Landon Collins S
Key off-season additions: Carson Wentz QB, Andrew Norwell G, Jahan Dotson WR, Brian Robinson RB, Phidarian Mathis DT

Washington Commanders Win Total - 7.5

Unfortunately for Wentz, he will have less help around him than he did with the Colts. The Commanders may have a new look and a new name, but their roster still looks like its in need of serious renovation. Terry McLaurin is a solid No. 1 option in the league, but Curtis Samuel has struggled with injuries. If rookie Jahan Dotson can provide a spark right away, that would be huge for this offense. That’s especially true because the tight ends are one of the worst groups in the league, as Logan Thomas is coming off a late-season knee injury and there are no proven backups.

Curtis Samuel is being overlooked after a frustrating debut season for Washington. That could be a positive for the Commanders. https://t.co/GWX1KoQUSa
— Commanders Wire (@Washington_Wire) July 20, 2022

The good news is that the schedule is not tough. With the first two games being against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Detroit Lions, the Commanders should get off to a nice start. The defense’s strength is its front four, led by DE Chase Young, who is also coming off a knee tear. But there’s not a ton of talent in the back end outside of Kendall Fuller. And the offense will likely struggle to consistently move the ball under Wentz, especially as Pro Bowl guard Brandon Scherff moves on and the line will likely struggle in his absence.

DimersBOT: In our model's 10,000 simulations of the upcoming NFL season, the Commanders averaged 8.06 wins per year. That makes Washington a solid bet to hit its Over on 7.5. But this isn't one that's worth putting too much money on. This team can easily struggle if Wentz doesn't figure himself out.

Washington Commanders X-Factor - Jamin Davis, LB

Jamin Davis totaled 76 tackles and one sack in 16 games as a rookie, which is production that will have to improve in year two.

Jamin Davis called his rookie year a 'humbling experience.' How could it not have been? Drafted 19th overall to be a three-down linebacker, the 23-year-old failed to meet expectations as he struggled over the course of the year. https://t.co/MKA2vWMvSN
— WashTimes Sports (@WashTimesSports) July 20, 2022

Whether it be in the middle or on the outside, Davis needs to help make plays behind his strong defensive line taking on blocks for him. He could potentially help turn a good rushing defense – which was eighth in the league last year, allowing just 104 yard per game on the ground – into a great one.

If the speedy linebacker can benefit from another offseason in the NFL to get accustomed to the looks he’ll get from opposing offenses, he’ll take the next step in defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio’s scheme.

“Jamin was still trying to figure his job out,” fellow linebacker Cole Holcomb told NBC Sports Washington of Davis. “He’s doing a much better job this year and I think he’s gonna make huge drives this year.”

Washington Commanders Super Bowl 57 Chances

The NFC East is not terribly imposing, but everything would have to go right for the Commanders. Wentz would need revert to his 2017 form, McLaurin would need a dominant season and help on the other side, plus Antonio Gibson would have to be dominant behind a bad offensive line. Hoping for all those things make this a hard sell no matter the value.

Carson Wentz vs Taylor Heinicke (2021)

INTs: Wentz: 7 (24th), Heinicke: 15 (4th)

Redzone INTs: Wentz: 1 (18th), Heinicke: 4 (1st)

4th quarter INTs: Wentz: 3 (20th), Heinicke: 7 (1st)

Dropped INTs: Wentz: 6 (17th), Heinicke: 12 (2nd)

“Not a big upgrade” pic.twitter.com/DL5nGQxggf
— 𝘀𝗵𝗿𝗶𝗵𝗮𝗻 🪖 (@WentzToMcLaurin) July 15, 2022

DimersBOT: While the DimersBOT likes the Commanders to potentially go Over on the season win total, it definitely doesn't view a Super Bowl win as a possibility.

Washington Commanders 2022 Schedule

September 11, 2022 - vs Jacksonville Jaguars
September 18, 2022 - at Detroit Lions
September 25, 2022 - vs Philadelphia Eagles
October 2, 2022 - at Dallas Cowboys
October 9, 2022 - vs Tennessee Titans
October 13, 2022 - at Chicago Bears
October 23, 2022 - vs Green Bay Packers
October 30, 2022 - at Indianapolis Colts
November 6, 2022 - vs Minnesota Vikings
November 14, 2022 - at Philadelphia Eagles
November 21, 2022 - at Houston Texans
November 27, 2022 - vs Atlanta Falcons
December 4, 2022 - at New York Giants
December 17, 2022 - vs New York Giants
December 24, 2022 - at San Francisco 49ers
January 1, 2023 - vs Cleveland Browns
January 8, 2023 - vs Dallas Cowboys

Michael Krumholtz

Michael Krumholtz is a veteran sports writer who has covered sports across the globe, being in the press box for everything from World Cup qualifying matches to college football games. Having previously worked as an editor for a sportsbook, Michael also has valuable experience from within the walls of the sports betting world.