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Capitals vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Saturday's NHL matchup [11/8/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning predictions for NHL Saturday.
The Tampa Bay Lightning and Washington Capitals are scheduled to meet in the NHL at Benchmark International Arena on Saturday, with puck drop at 7:00PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model predicts the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Capitals vs. Lightning game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including goal scorer projections, best bets and player prop picks.
Caps vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win, cover the puck line?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's NHL game between the Capitals and Lightning 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Lightning a 57% chance of beating the Capitals.
According to our model, the Capitals (+1.5) have a 65% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6-goal over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Capitals vs. Lightning odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Capitals | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-190) | -1.5 (+170) |
| Moneyline | +125 | -148 |
| Total | o6 (-105) | u6 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Capitals vs. Lightning picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Capitals +1.5 | -190 |
| Moneyline | Capitals | +125 |
| Total | Over 6 | -105 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Capitals +1.5 at the spread.
Capitals vs. Lightning player props
Who will score a goal in Capitals vs. Lightning?
According to our model, Nikita Kucherov is most likely to score an anytime goal in Capitals vs. Lightning.
Our projections give Kucherov a 42.2% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is an 8.8% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Washington Capitals
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin | 32.3% |
| Tom Wilson | 28.2% |
| Aliaksei Protas | 26.9% |
| Dylan Strome | 26.2% |
| Jakob Chychrun | 21.0% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov | 42.2% |
| Brayden Point | 40.6% |
| Jake Guentzel | 40.5% |
| Brandon Hagel | 37.3% |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | 19.1% |
First goal scorer predictions
Washington Capitals
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin | 6.2% |
| Tom Wilson | 5.0% |
| Aliaksei Protas | 5.0% |
| Dylan Strome | 4.6% |
| Jakob Chychrun | 3.8% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov | 8.8% |
| Brayden Point | 8.5% |
| Brandon Hagel | 8.1% |
| Jake Guentzel | 7.9% |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | 3.3% |
Caps vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's matchup between the Lightning and Capitals at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:00PM ET.
- Who: Washington Capitals vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
- Date: Saturday, November 8, 2025
- Time: 7:00PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Benchmark International Arena
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Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat the Capitals on Saturday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Capitals vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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More on NHL
Stay up-to-date with the latest NHL betting news and parlay picks throughout the season. Plus, our Stanley Cup odds provide the most up-to-date projections for the Stanley Cup title.
Make the most of your sports betting experience by exploring our comprehensive list of US betting apps, and the latest sportsbooks in 2025, ensuring you never miss a top new-user deal.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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