Capitals vs. Lightning Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Capitals vs. Lightning NHL game on November 8, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL sport icon
NHL
Capitals
2
3
Benchmark International Arena
Lightning
Benchmark International Arena
TEAM123T
Capitals
1 1 0 2
Lightning
2 0 1 3
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Capitals
    0%
  • Lightning
    100%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Capitals
1 1 0 2
Lightning
2 0 1 3
P3 19:45 Power play - Goal scored by Nikita Kucherov assisted by Jake Guentzel (Empty Net)
P3 18:49 Shorthanded - Aliaksei Protas shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
P3 18:47 Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Jakob Chychrun saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 18:34 Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 18:34 Shorthanded - Shot missed by Capitals
P3 18:29 Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Aliaksei Protas saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 18:14 John Carlson shot blocked by Yanni Gourde
P3 17:33 Ryan Leonard shot blocked by Zemgus Girgensons
P3 16:12 Shot missed by Lightning
P3 15:03 Erik Cernak shot blocked by teammate
P3 13:52 Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Logan Thompson
P3 12:30 Shot missed by Brayden Point
P3 12:07 Shot on goal by Jakob Chychrun saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 11:33 Shot missed by Martin Fehervary
P3 10:41 Shot on goal by Erik Cernak saved by Logan Thompson
P3 09:48 Shot on goal by Aliaksei Protas saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 09:15 John Carlson shot blocked by Jack Finley
P3 09:10 Martin Fehervary shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
P3 08:42 Goal scored by Brandon Hagel assisted by Dominic James
P3 07:10 Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 20:00
    Stoppage - Offside
  3. P3 19:58
    Power play - Brayden Point won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
  4. P3 19:49
    Shorthanded - Dylan Strome won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
  5. P3 19:49
    Capitals challenge (Offside), call reversed
  6. P3 19:45
    Stoppage - Chlg Vis - off-side
  7. P3 19:45
    Penalty to Tom Wilson 10 minutes for Misconduct
  8. P3 19:45
    GOAL
    Power play - Goal scored by Nikita Kucherov assisted by Jake Guentzel (Empty Net)
    2-4
  9. P3 19:44
    Shorthanded - Dylan Strome won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in neutral zone
  10. P3 18:49
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Aliaksei Protas shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
  11. P3 18:47
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Jakob Chychrun saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  12. P3 18:34
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  13. P3 18:34
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot missed by Capitals
  14. P3 18:29
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Aliaksei Protas saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  15. P3 18:22
    Shorthanded - Nic Dowd won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
  16. P3 18:22
    Penalty to John Carlson 2 minutes for Hooking (Drawn by Victor Hedman)
  17. P3 18:14
    SHOT
    John Carlson shot blocked by Yanni Gourde
  18. P3 17:33
    SHOT
    Ryan Leonard shot blocked by Zemgus Girgensons
  19. P3 16:12
    Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Dylan Strome in neutral zone
  20. P3 16:12
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Lightning
  21. P3 16:12
    Penalty to Tom Wilson 2 minutes for Cross Checking
  22. P3 16:12
    Penalty to Victor Hedman 2 minutes for Slashing
  23. P3 15:03
    SHOT
    Erik Cernak shot blocked by teammate
  24. P3 13:52
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Logan Thompson
  25. P3 12:57
    Rasmus Sandin credited with hit on Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
  26. P3 12:48
    Connor McMichael won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
  27. P3 12:48
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  28. P3 12:41
    Tom Wilson won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  29. P3 12:41
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen
  30. P3 12:30
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brayden Point
  31. P3 12:09
    Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
  32. P3 12:09
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  33. P3 12:07
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jakob Chychrun saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  34. P3 12:03
    Dylan Strome won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
  35. P3 12:03
    Stoppage - High Stick
  36. P3 11:33
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Martin Fehervary
  37. P3 11:05
    Nic Dowd won faceoff against Jack Finley in defensive zone
  38. P3 10:41
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Erik Cernak saved by Logan Thompson
  39. P3 09:48
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Aliaksei Protas saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  40. P3 09:15
    SHOT
    John Carlson shot blocked by Jack Finley
  41. P3 09:10
    SHOT
    Martin Fehervary shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
  42. P3 08:42
    Nic Dowd won faceoff against Jack Finley in neutral zone
  43. P3 08:42
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Brandon Hagel assisted by Dominic James
    2-3
  44. P3 07:13
    Ryan Leonard credited with hit on J.J. Moser in defensive zone
  45. P3 07:10
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
  46. P3 05:58
    Oliver Bjorkstrand credited with hit on Brandon Duhaime in defensive zone
  47. P3 05:56
    Dominic James credited with hit on Rasmus Sandin in offensive zone
  48. P3 05:12
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Victor Hedman
  49. P3 03:55
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Tom Wilson
  50. P3 03:09
    Nic Dowd won faceoff against Gage Goncalves in defensive zone
  51. P3 03:09
    Stoppage - Offside
  52. P3 02:49
    Dominic James won faceoff against Nic Dowd in offensive zone
  53. P3 02:49
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  54. P3 02:48
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Logan Thompson
  55. P3 02:19
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
  56. P3 02:06
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Aliaksei Protas saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  57. P3 01:39
    Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Connor McMichael in defensive zone
  58. P3 01:39
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  59. P3 01:37
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  60. P3 00:49
    SHOT
    Nic Dowd shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
  61. P3 00:18
    Gage Goncalves won faceoff against Nic Dowd in neutral zone
  62. P3 00:18
    Stoppage - Offside
  63. P3 00:00
    Nic Dowd won faceoff against Jack Finley in neutral zone
  64. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  65. P2 19:55
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Anthony Beauvillier saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  66. P2 19:18
    Alex Ovechkin credited with hit on Brandon Hagel in offensive zone
  67. P2 18:23
    SHOT
    Erik Cernak shot blocked by Aliaksei Protas
  68. P2 17:27
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by John Carlson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  69. P2 17:08
    Connor McMichael won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in neutral zone
  70. P2 17:04
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by John Carlson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  71. P2 16:49
    Dylan Strome won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in neutral zone
  72. P2 16:49
    Penalty to Jack Finley 2 minutes for Roughing (Drawn by Ryan Leonard)
  73. P2 16:49
    Penalty to Ryan Leonard 2 minutes for Roughing (Drawn by Jack Finley)
  74. P2 16:47
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Logan Thompson
  75. P2 16:36
    Jack Finley won faceoff against Connor McMichael in defensive zone
  76. P2 16:36
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  77. P2 16:22
    SHOT
    Aliaksei Protas shot blocked by Victor Hedman
  78. P2 15:29
    Charle-Edouard D'Astous credited with hit on Alex Ovechkin in neutral zone
  79. P2 15:15
    Takeaway by Charle-Edouard D'Astous in neutral zone
  80. P2 15:12
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Lightning
  81. P2 14:52
    Dylan Strome won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
  82. P2 14:52
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  83. P2 14:50
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Tom Wilson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  84. P2 14:31
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Zemgus Girgensons saved by Logan Thompson
  85. P2 14:14
    Connor McMichael won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
  86. P2 14:14
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  87. P2 14:12
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jakob Chychrun saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  88. P2 13:54
    SHOT
    J.J. Moser shot blocked by Alex Ovechkin
  89. P2 13:22
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  90. P2 12:21
    Nic Dowd won faceoff against Jack Finley in defensive zone
  91. P2 12:21
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  92. P2 12:18
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Victor Hedman saved by Logan Thompson
  93. P2 11:43
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matt Roy
  94. P2 11:15
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Aliaksei Protas saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  95. P2 11:00
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Tom Wilson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  96. P2 09:48
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Martin Fehervary
  97. P2 09:13
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Matt Roy
  98. P2 08:44
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matt Roy
  99. P2 07:40
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Rasmus Sandin saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  100. P2 07:13
    Zemgus Girgensons credited with hit on Tom Wilson in offensive zone
  101. P2 06:49
    Connor McMichael won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
  102. P2 06:49
    Stoppage - Icing
  103. P2 06:28
    Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Connor McMichael in offensive zone
  104. P2 06:28
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  105. P2 06:25
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Logan Thompson
  106. P2 06:21
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Logan Thompson
  107. P2 06:17
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Nic Dowd in offensive zone
  108. P2 06:17
    Stoppage - Icing
  109. P2 05:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Logan Thompson
  110. P2 05:40
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nic Dowd
  111. P2 05:22
    Brandon Duhaime won faceoff against Jack Finley in defensive zone
  112. P2 05:22
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  113. P2 05:20
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Pontus Holmberg saved by Logan Thompson
  114. P2 05:10
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Connor McMichael in offensive zone
  115. P2 05:10
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  116. P2 05:08
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Erik Cernak
  117. P2 05:00
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Connor McMichael in defensive zone
  118. P2 05:00
    Stoppage - Icing
  119. P2 04:14
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ryan Leonard
  120. P2 03:59
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Trevor van Riemsdyk
  121. P2 03:26
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Hendrix Lapierre saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  122. P2 03:24
    Jack Finley won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in defensive zone
  123. P2 03:24
    Stoppage - Referee or Linesperson - Player Injury
  124. P2 03:22
    SHOT
    Ryan Leonard shot blocked by Dominic James
  125. P2 03:04
    Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Dominic James in defensive zone
  126. P2 03:04
    Stoppage - Icing
  127. P2 02:36
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  128. P2 01:44
    SHOT
    Shot missed by John Carlson
  129. P2 01:14
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Victor Hedman
  130. P2 01:11
    Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Connor McMichael in offensive zone
  131. P2 01:11
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  132. P2 01:09
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Logan Thompson
  133. P2 00:42
    SHOT
    Shot missed by J.J. Moser
  134. P2 00:31
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  135. P2 00:10
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brandon Duhaime
  136. P2 00:00
    Nic Dowd won faceoff against Jack Finley in neutral zone
  137. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  138. P1 19:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Victor Hedman saved by Logan Thompson
  139. P1 19:55
    Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Dylan Strome in neutral zone
  140. P1 19:55
    Stoppage - Offside
  141. P1 19:20
    Takeaway by John Carlson in offensive zone
  142. P1 19:17
    SHOT
    Shot missed by John Carlson
  143. P1 19:09
    Connor McMichael won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
  144. P1 19:09
    Stoppage - Icing
  145. P1 18:39
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nic Dowd
  146. P1 18:23
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ethen Frank
  147. P1 18:22
    SHOT
    Ethen Frank shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
  148. P1 18:02
    Nic Dowd won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  149. P1 18:00
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Logan Thompson
  150. P1 17:41
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Anthony Beauvillier in defensive zone
  151. P1 17:41
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
  152. P1 16:43
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by John Carlson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  153. P1 15:48
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Dylan Strome saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  154. P1 15:09
    Dylan Strome won faceoff against Dominic James in neutral zone
  155. P1 15:08
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Victor Hedman saved by Logan Thompson
  156. P1 14:35
    SHOT
    Power play - Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Martin Fehervary
  157. P1 13:59
    Power play - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Connor McMichael in offensive zone
  158. P1 13:59
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  159. P1 13:59
    Penalty to Aliaksei Protas 2 minutes for High Sticking
  160. P1 13:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Logan Thompson
  161. P1 13:18
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Aliaksei Protas
  162. P1 13:17
    Brandon Hagel won faceoff against Hendrix Lapierre in defensive zone
  163. P1 13:17
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  164. P1 13:15
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matt Roy saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  165. P1 13:12
    Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  166. P1 13:12
    Stoppage - Icing
  167. P1 12:00
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Jakob Chychrun saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  168. P1 11:40
    Shorthanded - Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Tom Wilson in defensive zone
  169. P1 11:40
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  170. P1 11:38
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by John Carlson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  171. P1 11:24
    Power play - Dylan Strome won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in neutral zone
  172. P1 11:24
    Stoppage - Offside
  173. P1 11:07
    Power play - Dylan Strome won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
  174. P1 10:18
    SHOT
    Matt Roy shot blocked by Emil Lilleberg
  175. P1 10:11
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Justin Sourdif saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  176. P1 09:00
    Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Dylan Strome in neutral zone
  177. P1 08:28
    Nic Dowd won faceoff against Jack Finley in defensive zone
  178. P1 08:28
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
  179. P1 08:27
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
  180. P1 08:21
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Connor McMichael in offensive zone
  181. P1 08:21
    Stoppage - Icing
  182. P1 07:59
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Tom Wilson
  183. P1 07:55
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matt Roy
  184. P1 07:49
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matt Roy saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  185. P1 07:42
    SHOT
    Aliaksei Protas shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
  186. P1 07:13
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jakob Chychrun saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  187. P1 07:10
    Connor McMichael won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  188. P1 07:10
    Stoppage - Icing
  189. P1 06:50
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brandon Duhaime
  190. P1 06:28
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brandon Duhaime
  191. P1 06:07
    Nic Dowd won faceoff against Dominic James in neutral zone
  192. P1 06:05
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Emil Lilleberg
  193. P1 05:07
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Alex Ovechkin
  194. P1 04:24
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Aliaksei Protas
  195. P1 04:06
    Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Connor McMichael in neutral zone
  196. P1 04:00
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Capitals
  197. P1 03:39
    Nic Dowd won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in neutral zone
  198. P1 03:39
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  199. P1 03:20
    SHOT
    Brandon Hagel shot blocked by teammate
  200. P1 03:02
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Gage Goncalves saved by Logan Thompson
  201. P1 02:20
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jakob Chychrun saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  202. P1 01:59
    Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Connor McMichael in offensive zone
  203. P1 01:59
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  204. P1 01:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Logan Thompson
  205. P1 01:53
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Logan Thompson
  206. P1 00:27
    SHOT
    Rasmus Sandin shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
  207. P1 00:24
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nic Dowd
  208. P1 00:00
    Dominic James won faceoff against Nic Dowd in neutral zone
  209. P1 00:00
    Game Setup.
Stats
Capitals
STATS
Lightning
30Shots on Goal19
56% Faceoff Win % 44%
1/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/1
23Penalty Infraction Mins11
19Hits20
12 Shots Blocked 10
12Giveaways11
CapitalsWSH
LightningTB
30Shots on Goal19
56% Faceoff Win % 44%
1/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/1
23Penalty Infraction Mins11
19Hits20
12 Shots Blocked 10
12Giveaways11

Capitals vs. Lightning: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Capitals vs. Lightning
  • Date: Saturday, November 8, 2025
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6
  • Moneyline Odds: Capitals +128, Lightning -148

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Capitals: 43%
  • Lightning: 57%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Capitals a win probability of 43%, while the Lightning have a win probability of 57%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Capitals in the NHL game at Benchmark International Arena on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Capitals vs. Lightning predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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