Lightning vs. Islanders prediction favors Tampa Bay to win Saturday's NHL matchup [10/10/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Saturday's NHL game between the Lightning and Islanders, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Lightning a 58.6% chance of beating the Islanders. According to our model, the Islanders (+1.5) have a 64.4% chance of covering the puck line, while the 5.5-goal over/under has a 51.4% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Puck Line: Lightning -1.5 (+160) / Islanders +1.5 (-170)
• Moneyline: Lightning -164, Islanders +145
• Total: Over/Under 5.5 (-110/-103)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Puck line: Islanders +1.5 @ -170 via BetMGM
• Moneyline: Islanders @ +145 via BetMGM
• Total: Over 5.5 @ -110 via BetMGM

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Islanders +1.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Lightning vs. Islanders player props

Who will score a goal in Lightning vs. Islanders?

According to our model, Nikita Kucherov is most likely to score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Islanders.

Our projections give Kucherov a 40.6% chance of scoring a goal at UBS Arena, while the star is an 8.6% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Nikita Kucherov: 40.6% probability
• Brandon Hagel: 36.3% probability
• Jake Guentzel: 35.1% probability
• Brayden Point: 29.4% probability
• Anthony Cirelli: 24.6% probability

NY Islanders

• Bo Horvat: 31.5% probability
• Emil Heineman: 22.0% probability
• Matthew Schaefer: 21.6% probability
• Simon Holmstrom: 20.7% probability
• Kyle Palmieri: 18.1% probability

First goal scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Nikita Kucherov: 8.6% probability
• Brandon Hagel: 7.7% probability
• Jake Guentzel: 7.5% probability
• Brayden Point: 5.9% probability
• Anthony Cirelli: 4.7% probability

NY Islanders

• Bo Horvat: 6.5% probability
• Matthew Schaefer: 4.0% probability
• Simon Holmstrom: 4.0% probability
• Kyle Palmieri: 3.8% probability
• Emil Heineman: 3.7% probability

Game info & puck drop details

Saturday's game between the Islanders and Lightning at UBS Arena is scheduled to start at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. NY Islanders
• Date: Saturday, October 10, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
• Venue: UBS Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Lightning, with a 58.6% win probability, will likely beat the Islanders in Saturday's NHL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NHL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.