Maple Leafs vs. Avalanche prediction: Why Colorado is favored to win Saturday's NHL matchup [10/10/2026]

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Saturday's NHL matchup between the Maple Leafs and Avalanche, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Avalanche a 66.0% chance of defeating the Maple Leafs. According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 55.5% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 50.2% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Puck Line: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-130) / Avalanche -1.5 (+114)
• Moneyline: Maple Leafs +195, Avalanche -209
• Total: Over/Under 6.5 (-115/+100)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Puck line: Maple Leafs +1.5 @ -130 via ESPN BET
• Moneyline: Maple Leafs @ +195 via BetRivers
• Total: Under 6.5 @ +100 via BetMGM

According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Maple Leafs vs. Avalanche player props

Who will score a goal in Maple Leafs vs. Avalanche?

According to our model, Nathan MacKinnon is most likely to score an anytime goal in Maple Leafs vs. Avalanche.

Our projections give MacKinnon a 43.1% chance of scoring a goal at Ball Arena, while the star is an 8.8% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Auston Matthews: 35.6% probability
• William Nylander: 34.2% probability
• Kirill Marchenko: 26.6% probability
• Jack Roslovic: 24.4% probability
• Darren Raddysh: 20.0% probability

Colorado Avalanche

• Nathan MacKinnon: 43.1% probability
• Martin Necas: 37.5% probability
• Artturi Lehkonen: 31.3% probability
• Brock Nelson: 31.0% probability
• Cale Makar: 25.8% probability

First goal scorer predictions

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Auston Matthews: 6.9% probability
• William Nylander: 6.5% probability
• Kirill Marchenko: 4.6% probability
• Jack Roslovic: 3.8% probability
• Darren Raddysh: 3.4% probability

Colorado Avalanche

• Nathan MacKinnon: 8.8% probability
• Martin Necas: 7.7% probability
• Artturi Lehkonen: 6.3% probability
• Brock Nelson: 6.1% probability
• Cale Makar: 4.6% probability

Game info & puck drop details

Saturday's action between the Avalanche and Maple Leafs at Ball Arena is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Colorado Avalanche
• Date: Saturday, October 10, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Ball Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Avalanche, with a 66.0% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs in Saturday's NHL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NHL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.