Maple Leafs vs. Avalanche Prediction, Picks & Odds
Moneyline
- Maple Leafs
- Avalanche
- Auston Matthews36.4%
- William Nylander34.8%
- Kirill Marchenko26.7%
- Jack Roslovic
- Darren Raddysh
- Nathan MacKinnon44.2%
- Martin Necas37.2%
- Artturi Lehkonen33.1%
- Brock Nelson
- Cale Makar
Maple Leafs vs. Avalanche prediction & analysis
Game overview: NHL Saturday
- Teams: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Colorado Avalanche
- Date: Saturday, October 10, 2026
- Puck drop: 7:00PM ET
- Venue: Ball Arena
Current betting odds
- Puck line: Maple Leafs (+1.5, -130), Avalanche (-1.5, +120)
- Moneyline: Maple Leafs +180, Avalanche -205
- Total (Over/Under): 6.5 goals (-110/-104)
Dimers’ win probabilities
- Maple Leafs: 34.4%
- Avalanche: 65.5%
Our NHL win probabilities come from a machine learning model that assesses each team’s offensive and defensive performance, calculating multiple factors and accounting for OT and shootout chances.
It draws from these projections to forecast probabilities for the moneyline, puck line, and total goals.
Maple Leafs vs. Avalanche player props & projections
Our highest anytime goalscorer probabilities for this game are:
- Auston Matthews, Maple Leafs: 35.8%
- William Nylander, Maple Leafs: 34.6%
- Nathan MacKinnon, Avalanche: 43.1%
- Martin Necas, Avalanche: 36.8%
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Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Maple Leafs a win probability of 34.4%, while the Avalanche have a win probability of 65.5%.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Avalanche are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at Ball Arena on Saturday.
That is the straight-up read. Whether either side is worth backing depends on the price, which is what our betting model rates.
Responsible gambling
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