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Capitals vs. Senators prediction: Ottawa favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [1/1/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Washington Capitals vs Ottawa Senators predictions for NHL Thursday.
The Ottawa Senators and Washington Capitals will meet in the NHL at Canadian Tire Centre on New Year's Day, starting at 1:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model gives the Senators a slight edge with a 54% win probability over the Capitals.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's Capitals vs. Senators matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Caps vs. Senators prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NHL matchup between the Capitals and Senators 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Senators a 54% chance of defeating the Capitals.
According to our model, the Capitals (+1.5) have a 68% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6-goal over/under has a 52% chance of staying under.
Capitals vs. Senators odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Capitals | Senators |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-190) | -1.5 (+170) |
| Moneyline | +130 | -150 |
| Total | o6 (-105) | u6 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Capitals vs. Senators picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Capitals +1.5 | -190 |
| Moneyline | Capitals | +130 |
| Total | Under 6 | -115 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Capitals to win.
Capitals vs. Senators player props
Who will score a goal in Capitals vs. Senators?
According to our model, Alex Ovechkin is most likely to score an anytime goal in Capitals vs. Senators.
Our projections give Ovechkin a 31.7% chance of scoring a goal at Canadian Tire Centre, while the star is a 6.8% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Washington Capitals
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin | 31.7% |
| Tom Wilson | 29.5% |
| Aliaksei Protas | 26.9% |
| Dylan Strome | 24.9% |
| Jakob Chychrun | 21.9% |
Ottawa Senators
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk | 31.6% |
| Tim Stutzle | 31.0% |
| Drake Batherson | 28.0% |
| Fabian Zetterlund | 21.8% |
| Shane Pinto | 21.7% |
First goal scorer predictions
Washington Capitals
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin | 6.8% |
| Tom Wilson | 5.8% |
| Aliaksei Protas | 5.2% |
| Dylan Strome | 5.1% |
| Ryan Leonard | 4.1% |
Ottawa Senators
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Tim Stutzle | 5.9% |
| Brady Tkachuk | 5.7% |
| Drake Batherson | 5.2% |
| David Perron | 3.9% |
| Dylan Cozens | 3.7% |
Caps vs. Senators game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's game between the Senators and Capitals at Canadian Tire Centre is scheduled to start at 1:00 PM ET.
- Who: Washington Capitals vs. Ottawa Senators
- Date: Thursday, January 1, 2026
- Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Venue: Canadian Tire Centre
Conclusion
We predict the Senators, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat the Capitals on New Year's Day.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Capitals vs. Senators insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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