...
...
Read Article
- More Betting
Capitals vs. Senators prediction: Ottawa favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [1/1/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Washington Capitals vs Ottawa Senators predictions for NHL Thursday.
The Ottawa Senators will face the Washington Capitals, in what is expected to be a close NHL game, at Canadian Tire Centre on New Year's Day, beginning at 1:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model gives the Senators a slight edge with a 54% win probability over the Capitals.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's Capitals vs. Senators matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Caps vs. Senators prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NHL matchup between the Capitals and Senators 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Senators a 54% chance of beating the Capitals.
According to our model, the Capitals (+1.5) have a 68% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of six goals has a 51% chance of staying under.
Capitals vs. Senators odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Capitals | Senators |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-200) | -1.5 (+170) |
| Moneyline | +120 | -142 |
| Total | o6 (-115) | u6 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Capitals vs. Senators picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Capitals +1.5 | -200 |
| Moneyline | Capitals | +120 |
| Total | Under 6 | -105 |
According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Capitals +1.5 at the spread.
Capitals vs. Senators player props
Who will score a goal in Capitals vs. Senators?
According to our model, Tim Stutzle is most likely to score an anytime goal in Capitals vs. Senators.
Our projections give Stutzle a 30.7% chance of scoring a goal at Canadian Tire Centre, while the star is a 5.9% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Washington Capitals
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Tom Wilson | 30.4% |
| Alex Ovechkin | 29.4% |
| Aliaksei Protas | 27.1% |
| Dylan Strome | 24.7% |
| Jakob Chychrun | 21.2% |
Ottawa Senators
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Tim Stutzle | 30.7% |
| Brady Tkachuk | 29.8% |
| Drake Batherson | 26.0% |
| Shane Pinto | 22.5% |
| Fabian Zetterlund | 21.5% |
First goal scorer predictions
Washington Capitals
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Tom Wilson | 6.2% |
| Alex Ovechkin | 5.8% |
| Aliaksei Protas | 4.9% |
| Dylan Strome | 4.8% |
| Jakob Chychrun | 4.5% |
Ottawa Senators
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Tim Stutzle | 5.9% |
| Brady Tkachuk | 5.5% |
| Drake Batherson | 5.0% |
| Shane Pinto | 4.2% |
| Fabian Zetterlund | 4.1% |
Caps vs. Senators game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's action between the Senators and Capitals at Canadian Tire Centre is scheduled to start at 1:00 PM ET.
- Who: Washington Capitals vs. Ottawa Senators
- Date: Thursday, January 1, 2026
- Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Venue: Canadian Tire Centre
Conclusion
We predict the Senators, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat the Capitals on New Year's Day.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Capitals vs. Senators insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
Advertiser disclosure