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Capitals vs. Senators Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Capitals vs. Senators NHL game on January 1, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL
3
4
Jan 1, 6PM Canadian Tire Centre
Jan 1, 6PM Canadian Tire Centre
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capitals | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Senators | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
0%
100%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capitals | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Senators | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
P3 19:43 Shot missed by John Carlson
P3 19:38 Michael Amadio shot blocked by John Carlson
P3 19:02 Shot missed by Dylan Strome
P3 19:00 Shot on goal by Aliaksei Protas saved by Leevi Merilainen
P3 18:52 Shot missed by Alex Ovechkin
P3 18:41 Shot missed by Jake Sanderson
P3 17:59 Shot on goal by Dylan Strome saved by Leevi Merilainen
P3 17:47 Shot missed by Aliaksei Protas
P3 17:38 Goal scored by Fabian Zetterlund assisted by Thomas Chabot and Tim Stutzle
P3 16:42 Shot missed by John Carlson
P3 16:41 Shot on goal by John Carlson saved by Leevi Merilainen
P3 16:25 Shot on goal by Jakob Chychrun saved by Leevi Merilainen
P3 15:53 Goal scored by Aliaksei Protas assisted by Justin Sourdif and Tom Wilson
P3 14:50 Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Logan Thompson
P3 13:36 Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Jake Sanderson
P3 13:14 Power play - David Perron shot blocked by John Carlson
P3 13:04 Power play - Thomas Chabot shot blocked by Martin Fehervary
P3 12:55 Power play - Shane Pinto shot blocked by John Carlson
P3 12:26 Power play - Shot missed by Tim Stutzle
P3 11:48 Power play - Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Logan Thompson
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
GOALS
ALL
End of 3rd Period.
End of 3rd Period.
SHOT
Shot missed by John Carlson
SHOT
Michael Amadio shot blocked by John Carlson
SHOT
Shot missed by Dylan Strome
SHOT
Shot on goal by Aliaksei Protas saved by Leevi Merilainen
SHOT
Shot missed by Alex Ovechkin
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Ridly Greig in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake Sanderson
Jake Sanderson credited with hit on Aliaksei Protas in defensive zone
Ridly Greig won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Ridly Greig in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Dylan Strome saved by Leevi Merilainen
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Ridly Greig in offensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Benches - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot missed by Aliaksei Protas
Giveaway by Nick Jensen in defensive zone
Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Shane Pinto in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Fabian Zetterlund assisted by Thomas Chabot and Tim Stutzle
3-4
SHOT
Shot missed by John Carlson
SHOT
Shot on goal by John Carlson saved by Leevi Merilainen
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jakob Chychrun saved by Leevi Merilainen
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Nic Dowd in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Aliaksei Protas assisted by Justin Sourdif and Tom Wilson
3-3
Michael Amadio credited with hit on Rasmus Sandin in neutral zone
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in neutral zone
Stoppage - Hand Pass
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Logan Thompson
Claude Giroux won faceoff against Connor McMichael in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Jake Sanderson
Shorthanded - Dylan Strome won faceoff against Ridly Greig in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
SHOT
Power play - David Perron shot blocked by John Carlson
SHOT
Power play - Thomas Chabot shot blocked by Martin Fehervary
SHOT
Power play - Shane Pinto shot blocked by John Carlson
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Tim Stutzle
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Logan Thompson
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
Power play - Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Nic Dowd in offensive zone
Stoppage - TV timeout
Penalty to Anthony Beauvillier 2 minutes for Slashing (Drawn by Michael Amadio)
SHOT
Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Thomas Chabot
SHOT
Shot missed by Thomas Chabot
SHOT
Trevor van Riemsdyk shot blocked by Brady Tkachuk
Tom Wilson credited with hit on Jake Sanderson in offensive zone
SHOT
Nick Jensen shot blocked by Connor McMichael
SHOT
Claude Giroux shot blocked by John Carlson
Connor McMichael won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Alex Ovechkin credited with hit on Tyler Kleven in offensive zone
Alex Ovechkin credited with hit on Jordan Spence in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Ridly Greig
SHOT
Shot on goal by Senators saved by Logan Thompson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Senators saved by Logan Thompson
SHOT
Artem Zub shot blocked by teammate
SHOT
Shot on goal by Artem Zub saved by Logan Thompson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nick Cousins saved by Logan Thompson
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Ridly Greig in neutral zone
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Stephen Halliday saved by Logan Thompson
SHOT
Power play - Thomas Chabot shot blocked by teammate
Power play - Claude Giroux won faceoff against Nic Dowd in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Shane Pinto saved by Logan Thompson
Shorthanded - Nic Dowd won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
SHOT
Shot on goal by Dylan Cozens saved by Logan Thompson
SHOT
Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Tyler Kleven
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Hendrix Lapierre in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by David Perron assisted by Stephen Halliday and Nick Cousins
2-3
Ridly Greig won faceoff against Nic Dowd in defensive zone
Stoppage - Offside
SHOT
Capitals shot blocked by teammate
SHOT
Jake Sanderson shot blocked by Trevor van Riemsdyk
Shane Pinto credited with hit on Martin Fehervary in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Martin Fehervary saved by Leevi Merilainen
SHOT
Drake Batherson shot blocked by Matt Roy
SHOT
Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Dylan Cozens saved by Logan Thompson
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in neutral zone
End of 2nd Period.
Tom Wilson credited with hit on Thomas Chabot in neutral zone
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in neutral zone
SHOT
Ridly Greig shot blocked by teammate
SHOT
Shot missed by Thomas Chabot
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Shane Pinto in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside
SHOT
Dylan Strome shot blocked by Tim Stutzle
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Logan Thompson
SHOT
John Carlson shot blocked by Thomas Chabot
SHOT
Thomas Chabot shot blocked by Matt Roy
SHOT
Shot missed by Drake Batherson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nick Jensen saved by Logan Thompson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake Sanderson saved by Logan Thompson
Brady Tkachuk won faceoff against Dylan Strome in neutral zone
Penalty to Trevor van Riemsdyk 2 minutes for Roughing (Drawn by Nick Cousins)
Penalty to Nick Cousins 2 minutes for Roughing (Drawn by Trevor van Riemsdyk)
Stoppage - Offside
SHOT
Artem Zub shot blocked by Hendrix Lapierre
SHOT
Shot on goal by Stephen Halliday saved by Logan Thompson
SHOT
Shot on goal by David Perron saved by Logan Thompson
SHOT
Shot missed by Jordan Spence
SHOT
Shot missed by Jordan Spence
SHOT
Shot missed by Tyler Kleven
Tyler Kleven credited with hit on Justin Sourdif in defensive zone
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in offensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
SHOT
Thomas Chabot shot blocked by Tom Wilson
Alex Ovechkin credited with hit on Artem Zub in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Trevor van Riemsdyk
SHOT
Shot missed by Aliaksei Protas
Claude Giroux won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
John Carlson shot blocked by Jordan Spence
Shane Pinto won faceoff against Nic Dowd in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Shane Pinto won faceoff against Nic Dowd in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Leevi Merilainen
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Power play - Ryan Leonard shot blocked by Jake Sanderson
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Alex Ovechkin
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in defensive zone
Penalty to David Perron 2 minutes for Misconduct
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by David Perron saved by Logan Thompson
Power play - David Perron credited with hit on Tom Wilson in offensive zone
Shorthanded - Nic Dowd won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by David Perron saved by Logan Thompson
Power play - Claude Giroux won faceoff against Nic Dowd in offensive zone
Penalty to Connor McMichael 2 minutes for Misconduct (Drawn by David Perron)
Drake Batherson credited with hit on Matt Roy in neutral zone
Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake Sanderson saved by Logan Thompson
Shane Pinto won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot missed by Ethen Frank
SHOT
Shot on goal by David Perron saved by Logan Thompson
SHOT
Aliaksei Protas shot blocked by Nick Jensen
Nic Dowd won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Rasmus Sandin saved by Leevi Merilainen
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Justin Sourdif
Shorthanded - Claude Giroux won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in defensive zone
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Leevi Merilainen
Power play - Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Shane Pinto in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Jakob Chychrun saved by Leevi Merilainen
Shorthanded - Ridly Greig won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
Penalty to Nick Cousins 2 minutes for Cross Checking (Drawn by Ryan Leonard)
SHOT
Matt Roy shot blocked by Dylan Cozens
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake Sanderson saved by Logan Thompson
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Hendrix Lapierre in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Drake Batherson saved by Logan Thompson
SHOT
Jake Sanderson shot blocked by Aliaksei Protas
SHOT
Shot missed by Tim Stutzle
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Nick Jensen credited with hit on Anthony Beauvillier in defensive zone
Tyler Kleven credited with hit on Tom Wilson in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Justin Sourdif
Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Shane Pinto in neutral zone
End of 1st Period.
Michael Amadio credited with hit on Matt Roy in neutral zone
Nic Dowd won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
GOAL
Power play - Goal scored by Dylan Strome assisted by Ryan Leonard and Jakob Chychrun
2-0
Shorthanded - Ridly Greig won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
Penalty to Nick Jensen 2 minutes for Misconduct
SHOT
John Carlson shot blocked by Nick Cousins
SHOT
Shot missed by Ethen Frank
SHOT
Shot missed by Capitals
SHOT
Fabian Zetterlund shot blocked by Nic Dowd
Tim Stutzle credited with hit on Martin Fehervary in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Dylan Strome saved by Leevi Merilainen
Michael Amadio credited with hit on Jakob Chychrun in offensive zone
Claude Giroux won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Tom Wilson saved by Leevi Merilainen
SHOT
Shot on goal by Dylan Cozens saved by Logan Thompson
Nic Dowd won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in defensive zone
Penalty to Justin Sourdif 5 minutes for Fighting (Drawn by Drake Batherson)
Penalty to Drake Batherson 5 minutes for Fighting (Drawn by Justin Sourdif)
SHOT
John Carlson shot blocked by Stephen Halliday
SHOT
Shot on goal by John Carlson saved by Leevi Merilainen
Brandon Duhaime won faceoff against Stephen Halliday in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Logan Thompson
SHOT
Shot missed by Matt Roy
SHOT
Fabian Zetterlund shot blocked by Martin Fehervary
SHOT
Shot missed by Jordan Spence
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Shane Pinto in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Logan Thompson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Anthony Beauvillier saved by Leevi Merilainen
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Leevi Merilainen
Shorthanded - Tyler Kleven credited with hit on Ethen Frank in defensive zone
Power play - Justin Sourdif credited with hit on Thomas Chabot in offensive zone
Shorthanded - Claude Giroux won faceoff against Connor McMichael in defensive zone
Stoppage - TV timeout
Penalty to Dylan Strome 2 minutes for Roughing (Drawn by Artem Zub)
Penalty to Artem Zub 2 minutes for Boarding (Drawn by Aliaksei Protas)
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Nic Dowd in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Tom Wilson assisted by Justin Sourdif and Jakob Chychrun
1-0
SHOT
Shot on goal by Tom Wilson saved by Leevi Merilainen
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jakob Chychrun saved by Leevi Merilainen
Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Shot on goal by Hendrix Lapierre saved by Leevi Merilainen
SHOT
Shot on goal by Anthony Beauvillier saved by Leevi Merilainen
Ridly Greig credited with hit on Jakob Chychrun in neutral zone
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot missed by Connor McMichael
Shorthanded - Nic Dowd won faceoff against Stephen Halliday in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
SHOT
Power play - Thomas Chabot shot blocked by Nic Dowd
Power play - Claude Giroux won faceoff against Nic Dowd in offensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
SHOT
Power play - Tim Stutzle shot blocked by Trevor van Riemsdyk
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Thomas Chabot
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Aliaksei Protas saved by Leevi Merilainen
SHOT
Power play - Brady Tkachuk shot blocked by teammate
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Logan Thompson
Power play - Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Tom Wilson in offensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
SHOT
Power play - Dylan Cozens shot blocked by John Carlson
Shorthanded - Nic Dowd won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in defensive zone
Penalty to Alex Ovechkin 2 minutes for Misconduct (Drawn by Michael Amadio)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Dylan Strome saved by Leevi Merilainen
Matt Roy credited with hit on Jake Sanderson in offensive zone
Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Logan Thompson
Tim Stutzle credited with hit on Brandon Duhaime in offensive zone
SHOT
Thomas Chabot shot blocked by teammate
SHOT
Nick Jensen shot blocked by Martin Fehervary
SHOT
Shot on goal by Martin Fehervary saved by Leevi Merilainen
Hendrix Lapierre won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in offensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
SHOT
Jordan Spence shot blocked by Anthony Beauvillier
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Nic Dowd in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Fabian Zetterlund credited with hit on Jakob Chychrun in offensive zone
Giveaway by Brady Tkachuk in offensive zone
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Tom Wilson in neutral zone
Stoppage - Referee or Linesperson
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in neutral zone
Game Setup.
Stats
| STATS | |
|---|
| 29 | Shots on Goal | 32 | |||
| 51% | Faceoff Win % | 49% | |||
| 4/1 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 4/0 | |||
| 17 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 17 | |||
| 15 | Hits | 32 | |||
| 19 | Shots Blocked | 14 | |||
| 9 | Giveaways | 17 |
| |
|---|
| 29 | Shots on Goal | 32 | |||
| 51% | Faceoff Win % | 49% | |||
| 4/1 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 4/0 | |||
| 17 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 17 | |||
| 15 | Hits | 32 | |||
| 19 | Shots Blocked | 14 | |||
| 9 | Giveaways | 17 |
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Capitals vs. Senators: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Capitals vs. Senators
- Date: Thursday, January 1, 2026
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: Canadian Tire Centre
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Senators favored at -1.5
- Total (Over/Under): 6
- Moneyline Odds: Capitals +135, Senators -150
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Capitals: 46%
- Senators: 54%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Capitals a win probability of 46%, while the Senators have a win probability of 54%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Senators are more likely to beat the Capitals in the NHL game at Canadian Tire Centre on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Capitals vs. Senators predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.
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