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Wagner vs. UMBC prediction: UMBC favored to win men's college basketball matchup [11/16/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Wagner vs UMBC predictions for college basketball Sunday.
UMBC and Wagner will lock horns in men's college basketball action at Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena on Sunday, starting at 12:00PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven college basketball model predicts UMBC as the most likely winner of the Wagner vs. UMBC game.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.
Wagner vs. UMBC prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NCAA basketball game between Wagner and UMBC 10,000 times as part of our men's college basketball predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives UMBC a 73% chance of beating Wagner. Our predicted final score has UMBC winning 73-67.
According to our model, Wagner (+6.5) has a 51% chance of covering the spread, while the 140.5-point over/under has a 52% chance of going over.
Wagner vs. UMBC odds
We have sourced the best Men's College Basketball odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Wagner | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +6.5 (-102) | -6.5 (-115) |
| Moneyline | +260 | -315 |
| Total | o140.5 (-108) | u140.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Wagner vs. UMBC picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wagner +6.5 | -102 |
| Moneyline | Wagner | +260 |
| Total | Over 140.5 | -108 |
According to our best men's college basketball bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 140.5 total points.
Wagner vs. UMBC game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's men's college basketball game between UMBC and Wagner at Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena is scheduled to start at 12:00PM ET.
- Who: Wagner vs. UMBC
- Date: Sunday, November 16, 2025
- Time: 12:00PM ET/9:00AM PT
- Venue: Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena
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Conclusion
We predict UMBC, with a 73% win probability, will likely beat Wagner on Sunday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Wagner vs. UMBC insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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