Vermont vs. UMBC prediction: Vermont favored to win men's college basketball matchup [2/19/2026]

UMBC will take on Vermont, in what is expected to be a close men's college basketball game, at Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena on Thursday, starting at 6:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven college basketball model gives Vermont a slight edge with a 53% win probability over UMBC.

This article offers a closer look at Thursday's Vermont vs. UMBC matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.

Vermont vs. UMBC prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NCAA basketball matchup between Vermont and UMBC 10,000 times as part of our men's college basketball predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives Vermont a 53% chance of defeating UMBC. Our predicted score is Vermont 72-72 UMBC.

According to our model, UMBC (+1.5) has a 55% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 141.5 points has a 55% chance of going over.

While there is no way for a men's college basketball game to end in a tie, our prediction of 72-72 is based on each team's average score in the above-mentioned simulations of Vermont vs. UMBC.

Vermont vs. UMBC odds

We have researched the best men's college basketball odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Vermont vs. UMBC picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: