Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Why Vegas is favored to win Friday's NHL matchup [1/23/2026]

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Vegas Golden Knights will meet in the NHL at Scotiabank Arena on Friday, starting at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven NHL model gives the Golden Knights a slight edge with a 51% win probability over the Maple Leafs.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's NHL matchup between the Golden Knights and Maple Leafs 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Golden Knights a 51% chance of beating the Maple Leafs.

According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 69% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of six goals has a 55% chance of going over.

Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Golden Knights	Maple Leafs
Puck Line	-1.5 (+205)	+1.5 (-238)
Moneyline	-118	+102
Total	o6 (-130)	u6 (+100)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Maple Leafs +1.5	-238
Moneyline	Maple Leafs	+102
Total	Over 6	-130

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Maple Leafs to win.

Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs player props

Who will score a goal in Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs?

According to our model, Auston Matthews is most likely to score an anytime goal in Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs.

Our projections give Matthews a 46.4% chance of scoring a goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the star is a 9.5% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Vegas Golden Knights

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Pavel Dorofeyev	34.3%
Tomas Hertl	32.9%
Jack Eichel	32.6%
Mark Stone	30.0%
Mitch Marner	26.0%

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	46.4%
John Tavares	30.9%
Matthew Knies	29.9%
Bobby McMann	26.2%
Matias Maccelli	21.1%

First goal scorer predictions

Vegas Golden Knights

Player	First Goal Probability
Pavel Dorofeyev	6.8%
Jack Eichel	6.5%
Tomas Hertl	6.2%
Mark Stone	5.7%
Mitch Marner	4.7%

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	First Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	9.5%
John Tavares	6.0%
Matthew Knies	5.6%
Bobby McMann	5.0%
Matias Maccelli	3.6%

Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs game-day updates and essential details

Friday's matchup between the Maple Leafs and Golden Knights at Scotiabank Arena is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Vegas Golden Knights vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
• Date: Friday, January 23, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Scotiabank Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Golden Knights, with a 51% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs on Friday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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