...
...
Read Article
- More Betting
Golden Knights vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Sunday's NHL matchup [10/26/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Vegas Golden Knights vs Tampa Bay Lightning predictions for NHL Sunday.
The Tampa Bay Lightning and Vegas Golden Knights are scheduled to meet in the NHL at Benchmark International Arena on Sunday, starting at 5:00PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model projects the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Golden Knights vs. Lightning game.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including goal scorer projections, best bets and player prop picks.
Golden Knights vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win, cover the puck line?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NHL matchup between the Golden Knights and Lightning 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Lightning a 54% chance of beating the Golden Knights.
According to our model, the Golden Knights (+1.5) have a 67% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 54% chance of staying under.
Golden Knights vs. Lightning odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Golden Knights | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-200) | -1.5 (+170) |
| Moneyline | +120 | -140 |
| Total | o6.5 (+100) | u6.5 (-118) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Golden Knights vs. Lightning picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Golden Knights +1.5 | -200 |
| Moneyline | Golden Knights | +120 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -118 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.
Golden Knights vs. Lightning player props
Who will score a goal in Golden Knights vs. Lightning?
According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Golden Knights vs. Lightning.
Our projections give Guentzel a 41.8% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is an 8.3% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Vegas Golden Knights
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Pavel Dorofeyev | 37.4% |
| Jack Eichel | 35.6% |
| Tomas Hertl | 32.9% |
| Mitch Marner | 26.6% |
| Ivan Barbashev | 22.6% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 41.8% |
| Brayden Point | 40.0% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 37.1% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 30.2% |
| Brandon Hagel | 27.9% |
First goal scorer predictions
Vegas Golden Knights
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Pavel Dorofeyev | 8.2% |
| Jack Eichel | 6.7% |
| Tomas Hertl | 6.2% |
| Mitch Marner | 5.1% |
| Ivan Barbashev | 4.1% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 8.3% |
| Brayden Point | 8.1% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 8.0% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 6.1% |
| Brandon Hagel | 5.1% |
Golden Knights vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's game between the Lightning and Golden Knights at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to begin at 5:00PM ET.
- Who: Vegas Golden Knights vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
- Date: Sunday, October 26, 2025
- Time: 5:00PM ET/2:00PM PT
- Venue: Benchmark International Arena
Sports betting deal available for Sunday
To make the most of Sunday's exciting day of sports, headlined by NFL Sunday action, check out details on the latest Bet365 bonus code "DIMERS" that unlocks $200 in bonus bets from a $5 bet — win or lose. Don't miss out!
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat the Golden Knights on Sunday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Golden Knights vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.
More on NHL
Keep up with the latest NHL news and parlay picks throughout the season. Plus, our Stanley Cup odds provide the most accurate projections for the Stanley Cup title.
Make the most of your sports betting experience by exploring our comprehensive list of US betting apps, and the latest sportsbooks in 2025, ensuring you never miss a top new-user deal.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
Advertiser disclosure