Valencia vs. Rayo Vallecano prediction, odds, La Liga picks [5/14/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's La Liga match between Valencia and Rayo Vallecano, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently indicates a 44.1% chance of Valencia winning, a 28.5% chance for Rayo Vallecano, and a 27.4% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 58% chance of staying under, according to our model.

Valencia vs. Rayo Vallecano odds

We have sourced the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

Valencia	Rayo Vallecano	Draw
+125	+260	+210

Total Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
+115	-160

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Valencia vs. Rayo Vallecano picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Moneyline	Rayo Vallecano	+260
Total Goals	Under 2.5	-160

According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Rayo Vallecano to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Valencia vs. Rayo Vallecano: Correct score and BTTS predictions

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
VAL 1-1 RAY	12.9%
VAL 1-0 RAY	12.5%
VAL 0-1 RAY	9.5%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 47.5% chance of both Valencia and Rayo Vallecano finding the net and a 52.5% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.

Valencia vs. Rayo Vallecano game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's La Liga action between Valencia and Rayo Vallecano at Estadio de Mestalla is scheduled to commence in the United States at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Valencia vs. Rayo Vallecano
• Date: Thursday, May 14, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Estadio de Mestalla

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Valencia has a 44.1% win probability on Thursday, Rayo Vallecano has a 28.5% win probability, and there is a 27.4% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.