UMBC vs. USF prediction: South Florida favored to win men's college basketball matchup [12/21/2025]

USF and UMBC are scheduled to meet in men's college basketball action at Yuengling Center on Sunday, with tipoff at 3:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced college basketball model predicts South Florida as the most likely winner of the UMBC vs. USF game.

This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.

UMBC vs. USF prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NCAA basketball game between UMBC and USF 10,000 times as part of our men's college basketball predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives South Florida a 96% chance of beating UMBC. Our predicted final score has South Florida winning 89-67.

According to our model, the bookies have got it right, and UMBC and South Florida each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 158.5-point over/under has a 52% chance of going over.

UMBC vs. USF odds

We have researched the best men's college basketball odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

UMBC vs. USF picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: