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UMBC vs. USF prediction: South Florida favored to win men's college basketball matchup [12/21/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get UMBC vs USF predictions for college basketball Sunday.
USF will square off with UMBC in men's college basketball action at Yuengling Center on Sunday, beginning at 3:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced college basketball model projects South Florida as the most likely winner of the UMBC vs. USF game.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.
UMBC vs. USF prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NCAA basketball game between UMBC and USF 10,000 times as part of our men's college basketball predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives South Florida a 96% chance of defeating UMBC. Our predicted final score has South Florida winning 90-68.
According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and UMBC and South Florida each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 157.5 points has a 53% chance of staying under.
UMBC vs. USF odds
We have researched the best men's college basketball odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | UMBC | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +21.5 (-104) | -21.5 (-118) |
| Moneyline | +2200 | -2800 |
| Total | o157.5 (-120) | u157.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
UMBC vs. USF picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | UMBC +21.5 | -104 |
| Moneyline | South Florida | -2800 |
| Total | Under 157.5 | -110 |
According to our best men's college basketball bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 157.5 total points.
UMBC vs. USF game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's men's college basketball action between USF and UMBC at Yuengling Center is scheduled to begin at 3:00 PM ET.
- Who: UMBC vs. South Florida
- Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025
- Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
- Venue: Yuengling Center
Conclusion
We predict South Florida, with a 96% win probability, will likely beat UMBC on Sunday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate UMBC vs. South Florida insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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