Two NFL player prop trends to fade on NFL Sunday in Week 14 feature Justin Jefferson

Trend to fade: Justin Jefferson under 62.5 receiving yards

Current trend: 5 of last 5

Why the streak will end: It's no secret that it's been a long and frustrating season for Justin Jefferson and the rest of the Minnesota Vikings offense.

QB injuries and inconsistent play have ground this offense to a halt, scoring six total points in their past two games and being shut out last week by the Seahawks. Jefferson is the most glaring example of the state of Minnesota's offense - at 799 yards and five games remaining, he could finish the season with fewer receiving yards than his 10-game season in 2023.

His receiving line on Sunday is set at one of (if not the) lowest marks we've seen in his career, just 61.5 yards, and he's gone under it in five straight. However, this just may be the week he bounces back.

JJ McCarthy will be back under center after a one-game absence and even though he's been poor, two things stand out. First, he's still targeted JJ with high volume: 9, 12 and 9 targets in three games prior to the loss to Green Bay. Second, one of McCarthy's biggest issues has been interceptions, with a pick in every game and a pair in three straight.

He'll face the Commanders, whose six interceptions rank fifth-fewest in the NFL. As a team, they allow the second-most offensive yards in the NFL and the third-most via the pass at 254.9.

The Dimers model projects Jefferson to benefit from this soft defense with a receiving yards total of 67.7 in Sunday's game.

For more, check out our full player projections for Vikings vs. Commanders.

Trend to fade: David Sills V (Falcons) under 21.5 receiving yards

Current trend: 7 of last 7

Why the streak will end: You're probably reading this and saying, "who?" and you'd be completely justified in doing so as David Sills V is not exactly a household name in the NFL.

The 29-year-old third-year wideout was a former QB prospect and last played in the NFL for the Giants in 2022 prior to joining the Falcons in the offseason - so why are we looking at him to go over 21.5 yards for the first time this year?

The Falcons' offense has been decimated by injuries, with Kirk Cousins starting the rest of the way at QB after Michael Penix Jr's ACL tear, and Drake London ruled out for his third straight game this Sunday.

With Cousins under center and London out, Sills has seen his first actual work of the season, seeing 2, 3 and 4 targets in his past three games, recording 11, 16 and 15 yards respectively. He's also scored the first touchdowns of his career in back-to-back games.

The Falcons will face an excellent Seahawks defense but the Dimers model projects Sills to cut through and clear his low line with a projection of 28.3 receiving yards. Even this banged-up Falcons team has other primary passcatchers like Kyle Pitts, Darnell Mooney, and even Bijan Robinson out of the backfield for the Seahawks to focus on, giving Sills just enough opportunity to record his best mark of the year.

Check out our Falcons vs. Seahawks prediction for more data and insights.

Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2025-26 Season

• NFL Week 14 Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 14 matchup
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• NFL Projections: BRAND NEW Player Projections Hub
• The Dimers Sports Betting Podcast: Watch the latest episode
• Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
• Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.