Troy vs. Arkansas State prediction: Why Arkansas State is favored to win men's college basketball matchup [1/7/2026]

Arkansas State will face Troy in men's college basketball action at First National Bank Arena on Wednesday, starting at 8:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced college basketball model predicts Arkansas State as the most likely winner of the Troy vs. Arkansas State game.

This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.

Troy vs. Arkansas State prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's NCAA basketball matchup between Troy and Arkansas State 10,000 times as part of our men's college basketball predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives Arkansas State a 62% chance of beating Troy. Our predicted final score has Arkansas State winning 81-78.

According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and Troy and Arkansas State each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 160.5 points also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

Troy vs. Arkansas State odds

We have researched the best men's college basketball odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Troy vs. Arkansas State picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: