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Maple Leafs vs. Jets prediction: Why Winnipeg is favored to win Saturday's NHL matchup [1/17/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Toronto Maple Leafs vs Winnipeg Jets predictions for NHL Saturday.
NHL action continues on Saturday at 7:00 PM ET as the Toronto Maple Leafs lock horns with the Winnipeg Jets at Canada Life Centre.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model predicts the Jets as the most likely winner of the Maple Leafs vs. Jets game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Maple Leafs vs. Jets prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's NHL game between the Maple Leafs and Jets 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Jets a 56% chance of defeating the Maple Leafs.
According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 66% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 5.5 goals has a 57% chance of going over.
Maple Leafs vs. Jets odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Maple Leafs | Jets |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-200) | -1.5 (+165) |
| Moneyline | +125 | -145 |
| Total | o5.5 (-132) | u5.5 (+105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Maple Leafs vs. Jets picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Maple Leafs +1.5 | -200 |
| Moneyline | Maple Leafs | +125 |
| Total | Over 5.5 | -132 |
According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 5.5 total goals.
Maple Leafs vs. Jets player props
Who will score a goal in Maple Leafs vs. Jets?
According to our model, Auston Matthews is most likely to score an anytime goal in Maple Leafs vs. Jets.
Our projections give Matthews a 43.0% chance of scoring a goal at Canada Life Centre, while the star is a 9.2% chance of registering the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 43.0% |
| Matthew Knies | 27.4% |
| John Tavares | 27.3% |
| Bobby McMann | 25.4% |
| Matias Maccelli | 19.6% |
Winnipeg Jets
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Kyle Connor | 38.0% |
| Mark Scheifele | 35.7% |
| Gabriel Vilardi | 32.4% |
| Jonathan Toews | 20.9% |
| Cole Perfetti | 18.6% |
First goal scorer predictions
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 9.2% |
| Bobby McMann | 5.2% |
| Matthew Knies | 4.9% |
| John Tavares | 4.4% |
| Matias Maccelli | 3.3% |
Winnipeg Jets
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Kyle Connor | 7.6% |
| Mark Scheifele | 7.1% |
| Gabriel Vilardi | 6.8% |
| Jonathan Toews | 3.8% |
| Cole Perfetti | 3.3% |
Maple Leafs vs. Jets game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's action between the Jets and Maple Leafs at Canada Life Centre is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Winnipeg Jets
- Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Canada Life Centre
Conclusion
We predict the Jets, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs on Saturday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Maple Leafs vs. Jets insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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