Maple Leafs vs. Capitals prediction: Why Washington is favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [12/18/2025]

The Washington Capitals will take on the Toronto Maple Leafs in NHL action at Capital One Arena on Thursday, commencing at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model predicts the Capitals as the most likely winner of the Maple Leafs vs. Capitals game.

This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Maple Leafs vs. Caps prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NHL game between the Maple Leafs and Capitals 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Capitals a 56% chance of beating the Maple Leafs.

According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 66% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6-goal over/under has a 51% chance of staying under.

Maple Leafs vs. Capitals odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Maple Leafs	Capitals
Puck Line	+1.5 (-194)	-1.5 (+170)
Moneyline	+130	-150
Total	o6 (-102)	u6 (-118)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Maple Leafs vs. Capitals picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Maple Leafs +1.5	-194
Moneyline	Maple Leafs	+130
Total	Over 6	-102

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Maple Leafs to win.

Maple Leafs vs. Capitals player props

Who will score a goal in Maple Leafs vs. Capitals?

According to our model, Auston Matthews is most likely to score an anytime goal in Maple Leafs vs. Capitals.

Our projections give Matthews a 38.3% chance of scoring a goal at Capital One Arena, while the star is an 8.7% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	38.3%
William Nylander	31.3%
John Tavares	29.9%
Matthew Knies	25.2%
Bobby McMann	16.5%

Washington Capitals

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Alex Ovechkin	35.0%
Tom Wilson	33.0%
Aliaksei Protas	26.8%
Dylan Strome	26.5%
Connor McMichael	24.1%

First goal scorer predictions

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	First Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	8.7%
William Nylander	6.1%
John Tavares	6.0%
Matthew Knies	4.6%
Bobby McMann	3.0%

Washington Capitals

Player	First Goal Probability
Alex Ovechkin	7.4%
Tom Wilson	7.0%
Aliaksei Protas	5.3%
Dylan Strome	4.5%
Jakob Chychrun	4.4%

Maple Leafs vs. Caps game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's matchup between the Capitals and Maple Leafs at Capital One Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Washington Capitals
• Date: Thursday, December 18, 2025
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Capital One Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Capitals, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs on Thursday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Maple Leafs vs. Capitals insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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