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Maple Leafs vs. Capitals prediction: Why Washington is favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [12/18/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Toronto Maple Leafs vs Washington Capitals predictions for NHL Thursday.
NHL action continues on Thursday at 7:00 PM ET as the Toronto Maple Leafs lock horns with the Washington Capitals at Capital One Arena.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model predicts the Capitals as the most likely winner of the Maple Leafs vs. Capitals game.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Maple Leafs vs. Caps prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NHL game between the Maple Leafs and Capitals 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Capitals a 56% chance of defeating the Maple Leafs.
According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 64% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of six goals has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Maple Leafs vs. Capitals odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Maple Leafs | Capitals |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-200) | -1.5 (+170) |
| Moneyline | +130 | -150 |
| Total | o6 (-102) | u6 (-118) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Maple Leafs vs. Capitals picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Capitals -1.5 | +170 |
| Moneyline | Maple Leafs | +130 |
| Total | Over 6 | -102 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Maple Leafs to win.
Maple Leafs vs. Capitals player props
Who will score a goal in Maple Leafs vs. Capitals?
According to our model, Auston Matthews is most likely to score an anytime goal in Maple Leafs vs. Capitals.
Our projections give Matthews a 39.9% chance of scoring a goal at Capital One Arena, while the star is an 8.6% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 39.9% |
| William Nylander | 32.2% |
| John Tavares | 30.6% |
| Matthew Knies | 25.6% |
| Bobby McMann | 17.0% |
Washington Capitals
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin | 35.2% |
| Tom Wilson | 33.5% |
| Dylan Strome | 27.7% |
| Aliaksei Protas | 27.5% |
| Jakob Chychrun | 24.1% |
First goal scorer predictions
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 8.6% |
| William Nylander | 6.2% |
| John Tavares | 5.8% |
| Matthew Knies | 4.8% |
| Bobby McMann | 3.0% |
Washington Capitals
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin | 7.7% |
| Tom Wilson | 7.2% |
| Dylan Strome | 5.6% |
| Aliaksei Protas | 4.9% |
| Jakob Chychrun | 4.7% |
Maple Leafs vs. Caps game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's matchup between the Capitals and Maple Leafs at Capital One Arena is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Washington Capitals
- Date: Thursday, December 18, 2025
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Capital One Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Capitals, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs on Thursday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Maple Leafs vs. Capitals insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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