Maple Leafs vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Wednesday's NHL matchup [2/25/2026]

NHL action continues on Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET as the Toronto Maple Leafs lock horns with the Tampa Bay Lightning at Benchmark International Arena.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model projects the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Maple Leafs vs. Lightning game.

This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's NHL game between the Maple Leafs and Lightning 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Lightning a 64% chance of defeating the Maple Leafs.

According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 58% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of six goals has a 51% chance of going over.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Maple Leafs	Lightning
Puck Line	+1.5 (-130)	-1.5 (+120)
Moneyline	+185	-220
Total	o6 (-115)	u6 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Maple Leafs +1.5	-130
Moneyline	Maple Leafs	+185
Total	Under 6	-105

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Maple Leafs +1.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning player props

Who will score a goal in Maple Leafs vs. Lightning?

According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Maple Leafs vs. Lightning.

Our projections give Guentzel a 45.5% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is a 9.2% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	37.9%
William Nylander	31.3%
John Tavares	28.7%
Matthew Knies	22.8%
Bobby McMann	20.9%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	45.5%
Nikita Kucherov	44.8%
Brayden Point	42.8%
Brandon Hagel	39.0%
Oliver Bjorkstrand	22.4%

First goal scorer predictions

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	First Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	6.7%
William Nylander	6.0%
John Tavares	5.7%
Bobby McMann	3.7%
Matthew Knies	3.6%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	First Goal Probability
Nikita Kucherov	9.3%
Jake Guentzel	9.2%
Brayden Point	8.1%
Brandon Hagel	7.7%
Oliver Bjorkstrand	4.2%

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details

Wednesday's game between the Lightning and Maple Leafs at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
• Date: Wednesday, February 25, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
• Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Lightning, with a 64% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs on Wednesday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Maple Leafs vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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