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Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Maple Leafs vs. Lightning NHL game on February 25, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL
2
4
Feb 26, 12:30AM Benchmark International Arena
Feb 26, 12:30AM Benchmark International Arena
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maple Leafs | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Lightning | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
0%
100%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maple Leafs | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Lightning | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
P3 19:39 Shot missed by Bobby McMann
P3 18:55 Shot on goal by Matias Maccelli saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 18:52 Shot on goal by Maple Leafs saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 18:52 Shot on goal by Maple Leafs saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 18:42 Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P3 18:10 Shot missed by John Tavares
P3 16:30 Goal scored by Brayden Point assisted by Nikita Kucherov and Gage Goncalves
P3 15:28 Power play - Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 14:48 Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Nikita Kucherov
P3 13:49 Shot missed by Scott Sabourin
P3 13:25 Shot missed by Victor Hedman
P3 13:01 Shot missed by John Tavares
P3 12:45 Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Jake McCabe
P3 12:28 Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 12:08 Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 11:47 Shot on goal by Victor Hedman saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 10:11 Power play - Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 09:40 Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 07:38 Shot missed by William Nylander
P3 06:57 Power play - Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
GOALS
ALL
End of 3rd Period.
SHOT
Shot missed by Bobby McMann
SHOT
Shot on goal by Matias Maccelli saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Shot on goal by Maple Leafs saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Shot on goal by Maple Leafs saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
Takeaway by Oliver Ekman-Larsson in offensive zone
John Tavares won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Shot missed by John Tavares
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Brayden Point assisted by Nikita Kucherov and Gage Goncalves
1-4
Brayden Point won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in neutral zone
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Power play - John Tavares won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
Power play - John Tavares won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
SHOT
Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Nikita Kucherov
John Tavares won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
John Tavares won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot missed by Scott Sabourin
SHOT
Shot missed by Victor Hedman
Pontus Holmberg won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot missed by John Tavares
SHOT
Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Jake McCabe
John Tavares won faceoff against Dominic James in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Stoppage - Icing
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by Victor Hedman saved by Anthony Stolarz
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Anthony Stolarz
Shorthanded - Scott Laughton won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Anthony Stolarz
Oliver Bjorkstrand won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in neutral zone
Giveaway by Zemgus Girgensons in neutral zone
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by William Nylander
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
Power play - Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
Shorthanded - Simon Benoit credited with hit on Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
SHOT
Power play - Brayden Point shot blocked by teammate
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
Shorthanded - Scott Laughton won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
Giveaway by John Tavares in offensive zone
John Tavares won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside
SHOT
Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Pontus Holmberg
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Calle Jarnkrok saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Calle Jarnkrok shot blocked by Jake Guentzel
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Nikita Kucherov assisted by Gage Goncalves and Brayden Point
0-3
Giveaway by Darren Raddysh in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Anthony Stolarz
Matthew Knies credited with hit on J.J. Moser in defensive zone
SHOT
Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
End of 2nd Period.
SHOT
Shot on goal by Zemgus Girgensons saved by Anthony Stolarz
John Tavares won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot missed by Brandon Carlo
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Anthony Stolarz
SHOT
Shot missed by Victor Hedman
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
Bobby McMann credited with hit on Darren Raddysh in offensive zone
Brayden Point won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
William Nylander won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Brandon Carlo shot blocked by Brandon Hagel
Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Dominic James in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Shot on goal by Scott Laughton saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Pontus Holmberg credited with hit on Oliver Ekman-Larsson in neutral zone
SHOT
Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Zemgus Girgensons
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Nikita Kucherov
Brayden Point won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Jake Guentzel shot blocked by Auston Matthews
SHOT
Erik Cernak shot blocked by Auston Matthews
SHOT
Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
Shorthanded - Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Brandon Hagel in defensive zone
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Anthony Stolarz
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Anthony Stolarz
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Anthony Stolarz
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
SHOT
Power play - Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Steven Lorentz
Power play - Brayden Point won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Gage Goncalves assisted by Nikita Kucherov and Charle-Edouard D'Astous
0-2
SHOT
Shot missed by Gage Goncalves
Stoppage - Icing
Brayden Point won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone
Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Stoppage - Icing
Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Pontus Holmberg in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Anthony Stolarz
Darren Raddysh credited with hit on Calle Jarnkrok in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Anthony Stolarz
SHOT
J.J. Moser shot blocked by Jake McCabe
Power play - Giveaway by Matias Maccelli in offensive zone
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Nicholas Robertson
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
Power play - John Tavares won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in offensive zone
Penalty to Erik Cernak 2 minutes for Interference
SHOT
Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
End of 1st Period.
SHOT
Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Emil Lilleberg
SHOT
J.J. Moser shot blocked by Jake McCabe
SHOT
Shot missed by Zemgus Girgensons
SHOT
Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
SHOT
Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Scott Sabourin
SHOT
Steven Lorentz shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
Stoppage - Chlg Vis - off-side
GOAL
Power play - Goal scored by Brayden Point assisted by Jake Guentzel and Nikita Kucherov
0-1
Shorthanded - Scott Laughton won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Anthony Stolarz
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Anthony Stolarz
Power play - Brayden Point won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
Penalty to Simon Benoit 2 minutes for Misconduct
Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
Charle-Edouard D'Astous credited with hit on Calle Jarnkrok in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Oliver Bjorkstrand
Brayden Point won faceoff against Steven Lorentz in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
Simon Benoit credited with hit on Victor Hedman in defensive zone
SHOT
Gage Goncalves shot blocked by John Tavares
William Nylander won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Zemgus Girgensons credited with hit on Brandon Carlo in neutral zone
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside
SHOT
Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
SHOT
Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
SHOT
Shot missed by Oliver Bjorkstrand
Brayden Point won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
SHOT
Brayden Point shot blocked by Brandon Carlo
Brayden Point won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Maple Leafs challenge (), call reversed
Stoppage - Chlg Vis - off-side
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Anthony Stolarz
SHOT
Shot missed by J.J. Moser
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Anthony Stolarz
Nicholas Robertson credited with hit on Brandon Hagel in defensive zone
Stoppage - Offside
SHOT
Shot missed by Brayden Point
Giveaway by Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Yanni Gourde
Giveaway by Max Domi in neutral zone
Stats
| STATS | |
|---|
| 34 | Shots on Goal | 36 | |||
| 55% | Faceoff Win % | 45% | |||
| 2/1 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 4/0 | |||
| 8 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 4 | |||
| 18 | Hits | 17 | |||
| 17 | Shots Blocked | 11 | |||
| 15 | Giveaways | 9 |
| |
|---|
| 34 | Shots on Goal | 36 | |||
| 55% | Faceoff Win % | 45% | |||
| 2/1 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 4/0 | |||
| 8 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 4 | |||
| 18 | Hits | 17 | |||
| 17 | Shots Blocked | 11 | |||
| 15 | Giveaways | 9 |
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Maple Leafs vs. Lightning: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Maple Leafs vs. Lightning
- Date: Wednesday, February 25, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Benchmark International Arena
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
- Total (Over/Under): 6
- Moneyline Odds: Maple Leafs +185, Lightning -220
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Maple Leafs: 36%
- Lightning: 64%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Maple Leafs a win probability of 36%, while the Lightning have a win probability of 64%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at Benchmark International Arena on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Maple Leafs vs. Lightning predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.
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