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Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Maple Leafs vs. Lightning NHL game on February 25, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NHL
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NHL
Maple Leafs
vs.
Feb 26, 12:30AM Benchmark International Arena
Lightning
Feb 26, 12:30AM Benchmark International Arena
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
Pre-Game Probabilities Last Updated: 10:15AM, Feb 25
Moneyline
Over / Under
Puck Line
Maple Leafs TOR
Moneyline
Win %
36%
64%
Lightning TB
Player Props
Anytime Goal
First Goal
Maple Leafs
Probability
Auston Matthews
40.1%
William Nylander
32.2%
John Tavares
28.4%
Matthew Knies
Bobby McMann
Lightning
Probability
Jake Guentzel
50.2%
Nikita Kucherov
49.8%
Brandon Hagel
44.1%
Darren Raddysh
Oliver Bjorkstrand

Game Prediction Article

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Maple Leafs vs. Lightning: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Maple Leafs vs. Lightning
  • Date: Wednesday, February 25, 2026
  • Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6
  • Moneyline Odds: Maple Leafs +185, Lightning -220

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Maple Leafs: 36%
  • Lightning: 64%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Maple Leafs a win probability of 36%, while the Lightning have a win probability of 64%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at Benchmark International Arena on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Maple Leafs vs. Lightning predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.

For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.

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