Bruins vs. Penguins prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 5, 2026

The Boston Bruins are favored to beat the Pittsburgh Penguins at PPG Paints Arena on Thursday (7:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' NHL model.

Our Bruins vs. Penguins prediction gives Boston a 50.4% chance of winning, while the latest odds suggest there's betting value on the under 6.5 goals.

Bruins vs. Penguins key predictions

• Bruins win probability: 50.4%
• Penguins win probability: 49.6%
• Penguins +1.5 puck line: 69.4% cover probability
• Under 6.5 goals: 52.5% probability

Our NHL predictions estimate how many goals each team is likely to score, accounting for factors such as recent performance, shooting and save percentages, home-ice advantage, and rest.

We then calculate the probability of each team winning and covering the puck line, plus the chance the game goes over or under the total, and compare those probabilities with the latest odds to find betting value.

Bruins vs. Penguins odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets we track.

• Bruins moneyline: 50¢ (Novig)
• Penguins moneyline: 50¢ (Novig)
• Bruins -1.5: +210 (fanatics)
• Penguins +1.5: -260 (FanDuel)
• Over 6.5 goals: 51¢ (Novig)
• Under 6.5 goals: 50¢ (Novig)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Bruins vs. Penguins pick: Under 6.5 (50¢)

Our model makes the Bruins the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the under 6.5 total goals at 50¢ on Novig.

Those odds give the under an implied probability of 49.5%, while our model puts it at 52.5%.

That's a 3.0% edge, the largest across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets for this game.

Bruins vs. Penguins goal-scorer predictions

Our NHL player props model simulates each matchup 10,000 times to estimate goal-scoring probabilities, factoring in expected player usage, lineup changes, opponent strength, and projected team goals.

David Pastrnak of the Bruins leads the anytime goal-scorer projections for Thursday's game at 35.0%, followed by Pittsburgh's Sidney Crosby (32.8%). Pastrnak also leads the first goal-scorer projections at 7.1%.

Most likely anytime goal-scorers

1. David Pastrnak (Bruins): 35.0%
2. Sidney Crosby (Penguins): 32.8%
3. Pavel Zacha (Bruins): 31.7%
4. Morgan Geekie (Bruins): 31.7%
5. Rickard Rakell (Penguins): 30.6%

First goal-scorer predictions

1. David Pastrnak (Bruins): 7.1%
2. Sidney Crosby (Penguins): 6.4%
3. Pavel Zacha (Bruins): 6.4%
4. Morgan Geekie (Bruins): 6.2%
5. Rickard Rakell (Penguins): 5.6%

These are model probabilities, not betting recommendations. Compare projections with available odds to assess potential value.

Get every Bruins vs. Penguins prediction with Dimers Pro

Dimers Pro members get full access to our Bruins vs. Penguins predictions, including:

• Best bets across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets
• Full anytime and first goal-scorer probabilities for players on both teams
• Player prop edges for anytime goal-scorer, first goal-scorer, shots on goal, points, and assists markets

Bruins vs. Penguins game details

• Matchup: Boston Bruins vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
• Date: Thursday, November 5, 2026
• Puck drop: 7:00 PM ET
• Venue: PPG Paints Arena

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our NHL models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or starting goaltender confirmations. Learn how our predictions work.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.