Maple Leafs vs. Islanders prediction: Toronto favored to win Saturday's NHL matchup [1/3/2026]

NHL action continues on Saturday at 7:00 PM ET as the Toronto Maple Leafs take on the NY Islanders at UBS Arena.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model gives the Maple Leafs a slight edge with a 51% win probability over the Islanders.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's Maple Leafs vs. Islanders matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Maple Leafs vs. Isles prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Saturday's NHL matchup between the Maple Leafs and Islanders 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Maple Leafs a 51% chance of beating the Islanders.

According to our model, the Islanders (+1.5) have a 71% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6-goal over/under has a 53% chance of staying under.

Maple Leafs vs. Islanders odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Maple Leafs	Islanders
Puck Line	-1.5 (+225)	+1.5 (-250)
Moneyline	-110	+102
Total	o6 (-102)	u6 (-118)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Maple Leafs vs. Islanders picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Islanders +1.5	-250
Moneyline	Islanders	+102
Total	Under 6	-118

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Islanders to win.

Maple Leafs vs. Islanders player props

Who will score a goal in Maple Leafs vs. Islanders?

According to our model, Auston Matthews is most likely to score an anytime goal in Maple Leafs vs. Islanders.

Our projections give Matthews a 43.2% chance of scoring a goal at UBS Arena, while the star is a 10.2% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	43.2%
John Tavares	31.4%
Matthew Knies	25.4%
Bobby McMann	24.0%
Matias Maccelli	21.6%

NY Islanders

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Anders Lee	32.9%
Mathew Barzal	26.5%
Simon Holmstrom	23.5%
Emil Heineman	22.3%
Calum Ritchie	21.0%

First goal scorer predictions

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	First Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	10.2%
John Tavares	6.0%
Matthew Knies	5.1%
Bobby McMann	4.0%
Matias Maccelli	3.7%

NY Islanders

Player	First Goal Probability
Anders Lee	7.0%
Mathew Barzal	4.8%
Calum Ritchie	4.0%
Simon Holmstrom	3.9%
Emil Heineman	3.8%

Maple Leafs vs. Isles game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's game between the Islanders and Maple Leafs at UBS Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. NY Islanders
• Date: Saturday, January 3, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: UBS Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Maple Leafs, with a 51% win probability, will likely beat the Islanders on Saturday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Maple Leafs vs. Islanders insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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