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Maple Leafs vs. Islanders Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Maple Leafs vs. Islanders NHL game on January 3, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
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NHL
Maple Leafs
3
4
Jan 4, 12AM UBS Arena
Islanders
Jan 4, 12AM UBS Arena
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
TEAM123OTT
Maple Leafs
02103
Islanders
01214
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Maple LeafsTOR
Win %
0%
100%
IslandersNYI
Win Probability
TEAM123OTT
Maple Leafs
02103
Islanders
01214
OT1 04:10 Shot missed by Matthew Schaefer
OT1 03:52 Shot on goal by Tony DeAngelo saved by Joseph Woll
OT1 02:43 Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by David Rittich
OT1 02:06 Auston Matthews shot blocked by Jonathan Drouin
OT1 01:38 Shot missed by Matthew Knies
OT1 01:05 Shot missed by Matias Maccelli
P3 19:30 Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P3 19:27 Shot on goal by Scott Laughton saved by David Rittich
P3 19:00 Max Domi shot blocked by Mathew Barzal
P3 17:58 Troy Stecher shot blocked by Marc Gatcomb
P3 17:13 Shot missed by Emil Heineman
P3 14:37 Tony DeAngelo shot blocked by Bobby McMann
P3 14:08 Shot on goal by Adam Pelech saved by Joseph Woll
P3 13:52 Matthew Benning shot blocked by teammate
P3 13:47 Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by David Rittich
P3 12:11 Shot missed by Nicholas Robertson
P3 12:04 Shot missed by Simon Benoit
P3 11:08 Goal scored by Matthew Schaefer
P3 10:54 Shot on goal by Simon Holmstrom saved by Joseph Woll
P3 10:38 Shot missed by Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
OT
GOALS
ALL
OT1 05:00
End of 1st OT.
OT1 04:11
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Islanders in neutral zone
OT1 04:10
SHOT
Shot missed by Matthew Schaefer
OT1 03:52
SHOT
Shot on goal by Tony DeAngelo saved by Joseph Woll
OT1 02:43
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by David Rittich
OT1 02:06
SHOT
Auston Matthews shot blocked by Jonathan Drouin
OT1 01:38
SHOT
Shot missed by Matthew Knies
OT1 01:05
SHOT
Shot missed by Matias Maccelli
OT1 00:00
John Tavares won faceoff against Mathew Barzal in neutral zone
P3 20:00
End of 3rd Period.
P3 19:35
Giveaway by Anders Lee in defensive zone
P3 19:30
SHOT
Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P3 19:27
SHOT
Shot on goal by Scott Laughton saved by David Rittich
P3 19:00
SHOT
Max Domi shot blocked by Mathew Barzal
P3 17:58
SHOT
Troy Stecher shot blocked by Marc Gatcomb
P3 17:15
John Tavares won faceoff against Casey Cizikas in neutral zone
P3 17:13
SHOT
Shot missed by Emil Heineman
P3 14:37
SHOT
Tony DeAngelo shot blocked by Bobby McMann
P3 14:08
SHOT
Shot on goal by Adam Pelech saved by Joseph Woll
P3 13:52
SHOT
Matthew Benning shot blocked by teammate
P3 13:47
SHOT
Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by David Rittich
P3 12:25
Casey Cizikas won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
P3 12:25
Stoppage - Offside
P3 12:12
Casey Cizikas won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
P3 12:11
SHOT
Shot missed by Nicholas Robertson
P3 12:04
SHOT
Shot missed by Simon Benoit
P3 11:10
John Tavares won faceoff against Mathew Barzal in neutral zone
P3 11:08
GOAL
Goal scored by Matthew Schaefer
2-2
P3 10:54
SHOT
Shot on goal by Simon Holmstrom saved by Joseph Woll
P3 10:38
SHOT
Shot missed by Jean-Gabriel Pageau
P3 10:37
Jean-Gabriel Pageau won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
P3 10:37
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd - TV timeout
P3 10:12
Takeaway by Cole McWard in defensive zone
P3 09:31
Simon Benoit credited with hit on Cole McWard in defensive zone
P3 09:14
SHOT
Emil Heineman shot blocked by Matthew Benning
P3 08:54
Emil Heineman credited with hit on Jake McCabe in offensive zone
P3 08:51
Takeaway by Jake McCabe in defensive zone
P3 08:39
Mathew Barzal won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone
P3 08:39
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
P3 08:14
Mathew Barzal won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
P3 08:14
Stoppage - Icing
P3 06:59
Giveaway by Marc Gatcomb in neutral zone
P3 06:42
Casey Cizikas won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
P3 06:20
John Tavares won faceoff against Anders Lee in defensive zone
P3 06:20
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 06:17
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jonathan Drouin saved by Joseph Woll
P3 05:31
Giveaway by Easton Cowan in offensive zone
P3 05:26
Giveaway by Cole McWard in defensive zone
P3 05:22
Anders Lee won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in defensive zone
P3 05:22
Stoppage - Puck in Benches
P3 04:46
Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Mathew Barzal in neutral zone
P3 04:46
Stoppage - Offside
P3 04:20
John Tavares won faceoff against Casey Cizikas in neutral zone
P3 04:20
Stoppage - Offside
P3 04:07
Mathew Barzal won faceoff against Scott Laughton in defensive zone
P3 04:07
Stoppage - Puck in Benches
P3 03:40
SHOT
Jonathan Drouin shot blocked by teammate
P3 03:04
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Jonathan Drouin in defensive zone
P3 03:04
Stoppage - Icing
P3 02:48
Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Mathew Barzal in defensive zone
P3 02:48
Stoppage - Icing
P3 02:36
SHOT
Shot on goal by Calum Ritchie saved by Joseph Woll
P3 02:20
SHOT
Shot on goal by Max Shabanov saved by Joseph Woll
P3 02:19
Calum Ritchie won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
P3 02:19
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 02:17
SHOT
Shot on goal by Marc Gatcomb saved by Joseph Woll
P3 02:08
Giveaway by Casey Cizikas in offensive zone
P3 02:00
SHOT
Matthew Schaefer shot blocked by Simon Benoit
P3 01:35
SHOT
John Tavares shot blocked by Adam Pelech
P3 01:32
John Tavares won faceoff against Mathew Barzal in offensive zone
P3 01:32
Stoppage - Icing
P3 01:18
SHOT
Shot on goal by Tony DeAngelo saved by Joseph Woll
P3 01:13
SHOT
Shot missed by Adam Pelech
P3 01:08
SHOT
Mathew Barzal shot blocked by Jake McCabe
P3 01:03
SHOT
Shot missed by Tony DeAngelo
P3 01:00
Anders Lee won faceoff against Calle Jarnkrok in offensive zone
P3 01:00
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 00:58
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ryan Pulock saved by Joseph Woll
P3 00:47
SHOT
Shot missed by Simon Holmstrom
P3 00:25
SHOT
Shot on goal by Simon Holmstrom saved by Joseph Woll
P3 00:00
Jean-Gabriel Pageau won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
P2 20:00
End of 2nd Period.
P2 19:42
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Jean-Gabriel Pageau in neutral zone
P2 19:42
Stoppage - Offside
P2 19:33
Jean-Gabriel Pageau won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
P2 19:33
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
P2 19:22
SHOT
Scott Mayfield shot blocked by Scott Laughton
P2 19:17
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Mathew Barzal in defensive zone
P2 19:17
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 19:11
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Mathew Barzal in defensive zone
P2 19:11
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 19:09
SHOT
Shot on goal by Kyle MacLean saved by Joseph Woll
P2 18:02
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jean-Gabriel Pageau saved by Joseph Woll
P2 17:39
Jean-Gabriel Pageau won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
P2 17:39
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 17:37
SHOT
Shot on goal by Simon Holmstrom saved by Joseph Woll
P2 17:19
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Jean-Gabriel Pageau in neutral zone
P2 17:19
GOAL
Goal scored by Auston Matthews assisted by Bobby McMann and Max Domi
2-1
P2 17:17
SHOT
Auston Matthews shot blocked by Matthew Schaefer
P2 17:17
SHOT
Shot on goal by Maple Leafs saved by David Rittich
P2 17:05
Mathew Barzal won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
P2 17:05
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
P2 16:59
SHOT
Shot on goal by Matias Maccelli saved by David Rittich
P2 16:49
John Tavares won faceoff against Calum Ritchie in offensive zone
P2 16:49
Stoppage - Icing
P2 16:42
SHOT
Shot on goal by Scott Laughton saved by David Rittich
P2 16:34
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by David Rittich
P2 16:07
Maxim Tsyplakov credited with hit on Matthew Benning in offensive zone
P2 16:03
Nicolas Roy credited with hit on Max Shabanov in defensive zone
P2 15:51
Maxim Tsyplakov won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in neutral zone
P2 15:51
Stoppage - High Stick - TV timeout
P2 15:40
Simon Benoit credited with hit on Marc Gatcomb in defensive zone
P2 15:20
Giveaway by Kyle MacLean in offensive zone
P2 15:06
SHOT
Shot on goal by Emil Heineman saved by Joseph Woll
P2 14:13
Giveaway by John Tavares in offensive zone
P2 13:18
John Tavares won faceoff against Jean-Gabriel Pageau in defensive zone
P2 13:18
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 13:16
SHOT
Tony DeAngelo shot blocked by teammate
P2 13:00
SHOT
Shot on goal by Kyle MacLean saved by Joseph Woll
P2 12:29
Takeaway by Scott Mayfield in defensive zone
P2 12:05
Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Calum Ritchie in neutral zone
P2 11:21
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Mathew Barzal in defensive zone
P2 11:21
Stoppage - Icing
P2 10:31
SHOT
Tony DeAngelo shot blocked by teammate
P2 10:17
Jean-Gabriel Pageau won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
P2 10:17
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P2 10:15
SHOT
Shot on goal by Scott Laughton saved by David Rittich
P2 10:14
SHOT
Calle Jarnkrok shot blocked by Adam Pelech
P2 10:06
SHOT
Shot on goal by Troy Stecher saved by David Rittich
P2 09:30
Casey Cizikas won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
P2 09:29
GOAL
Goal scored by Auston Matthews
1-1
P2 09:03
SHOT
Nicholas Robertson shot blocked by Scott Mayfield
P2 08:39
SHOT
Shot missed by Calum Ritchie
P2 08:20
SHOT
Shot missed by Easton Cowan
P2 08:10
Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Calum Ritchie in offensive zone
P2 08:10
Stoppage - Icing
P2 07:56
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Calum Ritchie in defensive zone
P2 07:56
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 07:54
SHOT
Shot on goal by Simon Holmstrom saved by Joseph Woll
P2 06:51
SHOT
Shot missed by Emil Heineman
P2 06:22
Mathew Barzal won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
P2 06:22
Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
P2 05:34
SHOT
Nicholas Robertson shot blocked by Adam Pelech
P2 05:08
SHOT
Shot missed by Bobby McMann
P2 04:48
SHOT
Matthew Schaefer shot blocked by Auston Matthews
P2 04:26
SHOT
Ryan Pulock shot blocked by Auston Matthews
P2 03:46
SHOT
Shot missed by John Tavares
P2 03:30
SHOT
Shot missed by Simon Holmstrom
P2 03:14
SHOT
Shot missed by Troy Stecher
P2 02:59
John Tavares won faceoff against Jean-Gabriel Pageau in defensive zone
P2 02:59
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 02:57
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mathew Barzal saved by Joseph Woll
P2 02:45
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by David Rittich
P2 02:39
SHOT
Shot missed by Bobby McMann
P2 02:22
SHOT
Shot missed by Steven Lorentz
P2 01:54
SHOT
Shot missed by Kyle MacLean
P2 01:38
Casey Cizikas won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
P2 01:38
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 01:10
Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Calum Ritchie in neutral zone
P2 01:09
SHOT
Shot missed by Adam Pelech
P2 01:06
Jonathan Drouin won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
P2 01:06
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 01:04
SHOT
Shot on goal by Adam Pelech saved by Joseph Woll
P2 00:34
SHOT
Shot missed by Mathew Barzal
P2 00:09
Giveaway by David Rittich in defensive zone
P2 00:03
Emil Heineman credited with hit on Jake McCabe in neutral zone
P2 00:00
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Mathew Barzal in neutral zone
P1 20:00
End of 1st Period.
P1 19:53
SHOT
Max Domi shot blocked by Matthew Schaefer
P1 19:50
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Jean-Gabriel Pageau in offensive zone
P1 19:50
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 19:20
Jean-Gabriel Pageau won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
P1 19:20
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P1 19:18
SHOT
Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by David Rittich
P1 19:00
SHOT
Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
P1 18:58
SHOT
Shot missed by Matthew Knies
P1 18:09
SHOT
Matthew Schaefer shot blocked by Bobby McMann
P1 18:06
SHOT
Shot missed by Anders Lee
P1 17:53
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by David Rittich
P1 17:41
SHOT
Shot missed by Ryan Pulock
P1 17:16
SHOT
Jake McCabe shot blocked by Cole McWard
P1 16:33
Giveaway by Matias Maccelli in offensive zone
P1 16:22
Simon Benoit credited with hit on Jonathan Drouin in defensive zone
P1 16:01
SHOT
Tony DeAngelo shot blocked by Matthew Benning
P1 15:33
Giveaway by Matthew Knies in offensive zone
P1 15:24
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake McCabe saved by David Rittich
P1 14:36
Takeaway by Casey Cizikas in neutral zone
P1 14:26
SHOT
Tony DeAngelo shot blocked by Matthew Benning
P1 13:40
Shorthanded - Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Maxim Tsyplakov in defensive zone
P1 13:40
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 13:37
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Max Shabanov saved by Joseph Woll
P1 13:07
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Tony DeAngelo
P1 12:24
Shorthanded - Takeaway by Troy Stecher in defensive zone
P1 11:52
Shorthanded - Scott Laughton won faceoff against Jonathan Drouin in defensive zone
P1 11:52
Penalty to John Tavares 2 minutes for Slashing (Drawn by Scott Mayfield)
P1 11:26
SHOT
Shot missed by Mathew Barzal
P1 11:06
SHOT
Shot missed by Adam Pelech
P1 10:50
Mathew Barzal won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
P1 10:50
Penalty to Ryan Pulock 2 minutes for Misconduct (Drawn by Max Domi)
P1 10:50
Penalty to Max Domi 2 minutes for Slashing (Drawn by Ryan Pulock)
P1 10:50
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P1 10:15
SHOT
Shot missed by Matthew Schaefer
P1 10:13
Anders Lee won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
P1 10:13
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P1 10:11
SHOT
Shot on goal by Scott Mayfield saved by Joseph Woll
P1 10:01
SHOT
Shot on goal by Calum Ritchie saved by Joseph Woll
P1 09:41
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mathew Barzal saved by Joseph Woll
P1 08:21
SHOT
Power play - Auston Matthews shot blocked by Adam Pelech
P1 08:11
Power play - John Tavares won faceoff against Casey Cizikas in offensive zone
P1 08:11
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 08:09
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
P1 07:44
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by John Tavares
P1 07:18
Shorthanded - Jean-Gabriel Pageau won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
P1 07:18
Penalty to Mathew Barzal 2 minutes for Misconduct
P1 06:25
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Casey Cizikas in neutral zone
P1 06:25
Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
P1 05:19
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jean-Gabriel Pageau saved by Joseph Woll
P1 05:09
SHOT
Shot missed by Troy Stecher
P1 04:58
SHOT
Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
P1 04:55
John Tavares won faceoff against Jean-Gabriel Pageau in offensive zone
P1 04:55
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P1 04:54
SHOT
Simon Benoit shot blocked by Simon Holmstrom
P1 04:40
John Tavares won faceoff against Jonathan Drouin in defensive zone
P1 04:40
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 04:37
SHOT
Shot on goal by Adam Pelech saved by Joseph Woll
P1 04:30
SHOT
Shot missed by Tony DeAngelo
P1 03:40
Mathew Barzal won faceoff against Max Domi in defensive zone
P1 03:40
Stoppage - Skater Puck Frozen
P1 03:11
Giveaway by Tony DeAngelo in defensive zone
P1 02:45
SHOT
Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Marc Gatcomb
P1 02:42
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Kyle MacLean in offensive zone
P1 01:07
SHOT
Shot missed by Matthew Knies
P1 00:35
Anders Lee credited with hit on Jake McCabe in offensive zone
P1 00:16
SHOT
Shot missed by Auston Matthews
P1 00:00
Mathew Barzal won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
P1 00:00
Game Setup.
Stats
Maple Leafs
 STATS
Islanders
21Shots on Goal25
57%Faceoff Win %43%
1/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 1/0
4Penalty Infraction Mins4
19Hits21
11Shots Blocked11
19Giveaways17
Maple LeafsTOR
IslandersNYI
21Shots on Goal25
57%Faceoff Win %43%
1/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 1/0
4Penalty Infraction Mins4
19Hits21
11Shots Blocked11
19Giveaways17

Game Prediction Article

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Maple Leafs vs. Islanders: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Maple Leafs vs. Islanders
  • Date: Saturday, January 3, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: UBS Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Maple Leafs favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6
  • Moneyline Odds: Maple Leafs -112, Islanders +105

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Maple Leafs: 52%
  • Islanders: 48%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Maple Leafs a win probability of 52%, while the Islanders have a win probability of 48%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Maple Leafs are more likely to beat the Islanders in the NHL game at UBS Arena on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Maple Leafs vs. Islanders predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.

For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.

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