Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens prediction: Why Montreal is favored to win Saturday's NHL matchup [11/22/2025]

The Montreal Canadiens will square off with the Toronto Maple Leafs, in what is expected to be a close NHL game, at Bell Centre on Saturday, starting at 7:00PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven NHL model gives the Canadiens a slight edge with a 53% win probability over the Maple Leafs.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Maple Leafs vs. Habs prediction: Who will win and cover?

As part of Dimers' NHL predictions coverage—and following a review of recent results—our pregame model has generated moneyline, puck line, and over/under probabilities for Saturday's clash between the Maple Leafs and Canadiens.

Our independent predictive model gives the Canadiens a 53% chance of defeating the Maple Leafs.

According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 68% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 54% chance of staying under.

Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Maple Leafs	Canadiens
Puck Line	+1.5 (-205)	-1.5 (+180)
Moneyline	+125	-140
Total	o6.5 (+110)	u6.5 (-118)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Maple Leafs +1.5	-205
Moneyline	Maple Leafs	+125
Total	Under 6.5	-118

According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Maple Leafs to win.

Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens player props

Who will score a goal in Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens?

According to our model, John Tavares is most likely to score an anytime goal in Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens.

Our projections give Tavares a 43.9% chance of scoring a goal at Bell Centre, while the star is an 8.7% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
John Tavares	43.9%
William Nylander	42.4%
Nicholas Robertson	21.7%
Bobby McMann	19.9%
Matias Maccelli	18.3%

Montreal Canadiens

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Cole Caufield	39.8%
Ivan Demidov	28.7%
Nick Suzuki	28.3%
Jared Davidson	27.0%
Zachary Bolduc	22.7%

First goal scorer predictions

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	First Goal Probability
William Nylander	8.9%
John Tavares	8.7%
Nicholas Robertson	3.9%
Matias Maccelli	3.6%
Easton Cowan	3.2%

Montreal Canadiens

Player	First Goal Probability
Cole Caufield	8.3%
Ivan Demidov	5.4%
Nick Suzuki	5.2%
Jared Davidson	5.1%
Zachary Bolduc	4.2%

Maple Leafs vs. Habs game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's game between the Canadiens and Maple Leafs at Bell Centre is scheduled to start at 7:00PM ET.

• Who: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens
• Date: Saturday, November 22, 2025
• Time: 7:00PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Bell Centre

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Conclusion

We predict the Canadiens, with a 53% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs on Saturday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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