Maple Leafs vs. Panthers prediction: Florida favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [2/26/2026]

The Florida Panthers and Toronto mapleleafs will meet in the NHL at Amerant Bank Arena on Thursday, with puck drop at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model projects the Panthers as the most likely winner of the Maple Leafs vs. Panthers game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NHL game between the Maple Leafs and Panthers 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Panthers a 57% chance of defeating the Maple Leafs.

According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 65% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 54% chance of staying under.

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Maple Leafs	Panthers
Puck Line	+1.5 (-184)	-1.5 (+154)
Moneyline	+136	-160
Total	o6.5 (+104)	u6.5 (-122)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Maple Leafs +1.5	-184
Moneyline	Maple Leafs	+136
Total	Under 6.5	-122

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Maple Leafs to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers player props

Who will score a goal in Maple Leafs vs. Panthers?

According to our model, Sam Reinhart is most likely to score an anytime goal in Maple Leafs vs. Panthers.

Our projections give Reinhart a 42.8% chance of scoring a goal at Amerant Bank Arena, while the star is an 8.9% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	40.6%
William Nylander	32.8%
John Tavares	30.3%
Matthew Knies	24.2%
Bobby McMann	22.5%

Florida Panthers

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Sam Reinhart	42.8%
Matthew Tkachuk	35.2%
Sam Bennett	30.5%
Carter Verhaeghe	28.9%
Anton Lundell	21.5%

First goal scorer predictions

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	First Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	8.1%
William Nylander	6.0%
John Tavares	5.6%
Matthew Knies	4.3%
Bobby McMann	4.3%

Florida Panthers

Player	First Goal Probability
Sam Reinhart	8.9%
Matthew Tkachuk	6.3%
Sam Bennett	5.9%
Carter Verhaeghe	5.3%
Evan Rodrigues	4.0%

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's matchup between the Panthers and Maple Leafs at Amerant Bank Arena is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Florida Panthers
• Date: Thursday, February 26, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Amerant Bank Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Panthers, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs on Thursday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Maple Leafs vs. Panthers insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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