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Maple Leafs vs. Stars prediction: Dallas favored to win Sunday's NHL matchup [12/21/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Toronto Maple Leafs vs Dallas Stars predictions for NHL Sunday.
NHL action continues on Sunday at 7:00 PM ET as the Toronto Maple Leafs square off with the Dallas Stars at American Airlines Center.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model predicts the Stars as the most likely winner of the Maple Leafs vs. Stars game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Maple Leafs vs. Stars prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NHL matchup between the Maple Leafs and Stars 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Stars a 62% chance of defeating the Maple Leafs.
According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 60% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6-goal over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Maple Leafs vs. Stars odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Maple Leafs | Stars |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-135) | -1.5 (+120) |
| Moneyline | +180 | -210 |
| Total | o6 (-118) | u6 (-102) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Maple Leafs vs. Stars picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Maple Leafs +1.5 | -135 |
| Moneyline | Maple Leafs | +180 |
| Total | Under 6 | -102 |
According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Maple Leafs to win.
Maple Leafs vs. Stars player props
Who will score a goal in Maple Leafs vs. Stars?
According to our model, Jason Robertson is most likely to score an anytime goal in Maple Leafs vs. Stars.
Our projections give Robertson a 40.0% chance of scoring a goal at American Airlines Center, while the star is an 8.8% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 38.1% |
| William Nylander | 30.8% |
| John Tavares | 29.0% |
| Matthew Knies | 25.2% |
| Bobby McMann | 17.8% |
Dallas Stars
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jason Robertson | 40.0% |
| Mikko Rantanen | 36.9% |
| Wyatt Johnston | 34.8% |
| Roope Hintz | 29.5% |
| Adam Erne | 21.2% |
First goal scorer predictions
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 7.4% |
| William Nylander | 6.0% |
| John Tavares | 5.1% |
| Matthew Knies | 4.5% |
| Bobby McMann | 3.4% |
Dallas Stars
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jason Robertson | 8.8% |
| Mikko Rantanen | 6.9% |
| Wyatt Johnston | 6.8% |
| Roope Hintz | 5.1% |
| Matt Duchene | 3.7% |
Maple Leafs vs. Stars game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's action between the Stars and Maple Leafs at American Airlines Center is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Dallas Stars
- Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: American Airlines Center
Conclusion
We predict the Stars, with a 62% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs on Sunday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Maple Leafs vs. Stars insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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