Toledo vs. Michigan State prediction: Why Michigan State is favored to win men's college basketball matchup [12/16/2025]

Michigan State and Toledo will meet in men's college basketball action at Jack Breslin Students Events Center on Tuesday, starting at 6:30 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced college basketball model projects Michigan State as the most likely winner of the Toledo vs. Michigan State game.

This article offers a closer look at Tuesday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.

Toledo vs. Michigan State prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's NCAA basketball game between Toledo and Michigan State 10,000 times as part of our men's college basketball predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Michigan State a 97% chance of defeating Toledo. Our predicted final score has Michigan State winning 87-64.

According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and Toledo and Michigan State each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 150.5-point over/under has a 51% chance of staying under.

Toledo vs. Michigan State odds

We have researched the best men's college basketball odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Toledo vs. Michigan State picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: