Texas State vs. Arkansas State prediction: Why Arkansas State is favored to win men's college basketball matchup [1/10/2026]

Arkansas State will take on Texas State in men's college basketball action at First National Bank Arena on Saturday, starting at 3:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven college basketball model projects Arkansas State as the most likely winner of the Texas State vs. Arkansas State game.

This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.

Texas State vs. Arkansas State prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Saturday's NCAA basketball game between Texas State and Arkansas State 10,000 times as part of our men's college basketball predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives Arkansas State an 85% chance of defeating Texas State. Our predicted final score has Arkansas State winning 85-73.

According to our model, Arkansas State (-11.5) has a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the 156.5-point over/under has a 52% chance of going over.

Texas State vs. Arkansas State odds

We have researched the best men's college basketball odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Texas State vs. Arkansas State picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: