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Texas Children's Houston Open predictions: Golf picks and best bets
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
The 2026 PGA TOUR heads to Texas and after back-to-back wins from the Dimers model, we look at the best value for the Texas Children's Houston Open.
The Dimers golf predictions and best golf bets are back for the Texas Children's Houston Open, teeing off on Thursday, March 25 at Memorial Park Golf course in Houston, TX. After we correctly identified Cameron Young to win THE PLAYERS, and Matt Fitzpatrick to win the Valspar Championship in back-to-back weeks, we've got the latest best golf bets to make at the final stop of the PGA TOUR's Florida swing.
Memorial Park plays host once again and after Scottie Scheffler withdrew from the tournament on Tuesday, our updated predictions have seen several golfers climb up the leaderboard in terms of win probability.
Get a 3-day free trial of Dimers Pro in the Dimers App today!As always, The Dimers model is packed with insights for this week's tournament and we're once again breaking down the best golf picks based on the value identified by the Dimers golf model.
PGA Texas Children's Houston Open tournament preview
- Date: March 25-28, 2026
- Location: Houston, TX
- Course: Memorial Park Golf Course
- Par: 70 / 7,475 yards
- Purse: $9.9 million
- 2025 winner: Min Woo Lee (-20)
Based on data from the Dimers golf model, below are the five most likely winners of the Texas Children's Houston Open this week.
Our win predictions are the result of simulating the tournament over 10,000 times via our AI models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5, 10 and 20:
| Golfer | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% | Top 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Rickie Fowler | 5.2% | 19.3% | 31.0% | 48.1% |
| 2. Sam Burns | 4.7% | 17.6% | 29.5% | 46.4% |
| 3. Jake Knapp | 4.7% | 18.0% | 29.1% | 45.1% |
| 4. Harry Hall | 4.1% | 16.2% | 27.8% | 43.4% |
| 5. Ben Griffin | 3.8% | 15.1% | 25.3% | 41.8% |
Who will win the Texas Children's Houston Open?
For each tournament, we look at the golfers our model has identified with a higher probability to win than what is implied by the sportsbook odds.
We'll also highlight any standout prop and placement bets for other golfers if we find any appealing value hidden in the Dimers golf predictions.
To get the most out of this week's PGA TOUR event, check out Dimers' full tournament predictions and compare with course history and other analytics to find an edge.
Rickie Fowler to win (boosted to +4000 on Bet365)
Win probability: 5.2%
Dimers' fair odds: +1820 and above
Also featured in our boosted Top 20 parlay, Fowler has a 5.2% chance to win, the top probability from the Dimers model, making him fair at +1820, well below his boosted number thanks to our friends at bet365
His win probability rose by 1.1% after Scheffler withdrew from the tournament as the top of the board tightened up, but his odds actually got better.
Looking for his first win since 2023, Fowler has strung together six consecutive made cuts to start the year, including three top 20s and just one finish outside the top 30, with a best result of T9 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
He ranks 45th or better in every major statistical category and is particularly strong in scoring average on Par 4s, of which there are ten on this course.
Though he's only contended once since the 2019 redesign, finishing T52, he looks like a very different golfer right now than he did during his run up to last year's edition.
He needs to crack the Top 50 world rankings to play in the Masters and sitting at 61st, will be keen to make a run.
Our boosted odds on Rickie Fowler at bet365 - odds subject to change.
Harry Hall to win (+4000 on FanDuel)
Win probability: 4.1%
Dimers' fair odds: +2340 and above
Hall carries a 4.1% win probability against a fair number of +1340, making him a standout value play.
If you like rollercoasters, Harry Hall is exactly that. He's posted a pair of top 10s and a pair of top 25s, but also three missed cuts, a boom or bust profile.
His driving and approach play are both average to below average, neither of which jumps off the page as a compelling metric for this course.
Where he stands out is on the greens, ranking top 20 in putting, and his scoring when he makes the weekend is elite, ranking 2nd in Round 3 scoring and 11th in Round 4.
The books have him at -275 to make the cut, a good sign for his chances of playing the weekend and contending.
He's also shown a strong trend at this venue, improving in three straight appearances with finishes of T39, T28, and T18 last year.
Shane Lowry to win (+4400 on DraftKings)
Win probability: 3.8%
Dimers' fair odds: +2530 and above
The Irishman is back in the field after two disappointing results and a week off.
Lowry's win probability jumped from 2.3% to 3.8% following the Scheffler withdrawal, and there's good ladder value on him here across top 20, top 10, and top 5 markets.
He's been at this course before but never played this event, and he arrives motivated to rebound after back-to-back missed cuts following a near-win at the Cognizant, where he finished T2.
Lowry has a pretty well-rounded game overall, though distance is his weakest metric, which may limit his ceiling in a pure winning scenario.
That said, he has the experience and supporting tools to contend, making him a solid target in placement markets this week if not for an outright win with a significant 40% probability to bag a Top 20 finish at odds of +230.
Adam Scott to win (+4000 on FanDuel)
Win probability: 3.5%
Dimers' fair odds: +2760 and above
Scott carries a 3.5% win probability at his +4000 odds for a strong edge.
His history at this event is modest with a T54 in his most recent appearance, though he did manage a T32 back in 2021.
His recent form paints a much more encouraging picture alongside his Top 10 win probability from the Dimers model.
He's coming off a stretch that includes a 4th-place finish at the Genesis Invitational, a T11 at the Arnold Palmer, and a T24 at the American Express, three strong results in a six-event stretch for some of his best golf in recent years.
Scott's game is headlined by elite approach play, where he ranks 9th on TOUR and a powerful driver with the 26th-ranked distance off the tee.
Overall, Scott arrives in Houston with his game trending in the right direction, and his iron play in particular should suit a course where approach work is rewarded.
Texas Children's Houston Open longshot bets
Beyond the Dimers model favorites, several golfers have an edge at odds of more than 50/1, setting up longshot bets for outright wins or Top 20 placements at good plus-money value.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout to win (+10500 on DraftKings)
Win probability: 1.2%
Dimers' fair odds: +8230 and above
Bezuidenhout has a long price of +10500, and Dimers has him at just 1.2% to win, so he's appropriately priced as a longshot, but at better odds than he should be.
His only prior start at this event was a missed cut in 2022, and his recent form is a mixed bag with a missed cut at THE PLAYERS and another at the WM Phoenix Open, though has flashed with a T8 at the Puerto Rico Open and turned in a T30 at the Valspar last week.
He's a genuinely strong putter, and average on approach, but the more pressing concern is off the tee, where he ranks 139th, a liability at a course where positioning matters.
Still, at +10000, the price reflects the risk, and those looking for a longshot have good value on the South African.
Dimers' golf resources for 2026 PGA TOUR
As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers Pros also have access to the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.
- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including every major.
- Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
- PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR
The Dimers Pro golf predictions ended last season on an elite run, headlined by Tommy Fleetwood's first win at the TOUR Championship.
This season, we've accurately identified the live value on Justin Rose to win the Farmers Insurance Open at +500 and big edges on Tommy Fleetwood at Pebble Beach and our boosted pick of Cameron Young to win THE PLAYERS.
Dimers and responsible gambling
Please remember to enjoy gambling responsibly. Responsible gambling means setting limits, staying in control, and understanding that luck is just part of the game. Make informed choices, set a budget, and know when to take a break. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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