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Lightning vs. Capitals prediction: Close contest projected after new data released for Tuesday's NHL matchup [10/14/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Tampa Bay Lightning vs Washington Capitals predictions for NHL Tuesday.
The Washington Capitals and Tampa Bay Lightning will lock horns in the NHL at Capital One Arena on Tuesday, starting at 7:00PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model predicts an equal chance for both the Capitals and Lightning to win today's game.
For further insights into Tuesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Lightning vs. Capitals predictions page.
Lightning vs. Caps prediction: Who will win, cover the puck line?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's NHL matchup between the Lightning and Capitals 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently can't split the two teams, giving both the Lightning and Capitals a 50% chance of winning the game.
According to our model, the Lightning (+1.5) have a 70% chance of covering the puck line, while the 5.5-goal over/under has a 55% chance of going over.
Lightning vs. Capitals odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lightning | Capitals |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-225) | -1.5 (+190) |
| Moneyline | +108 | -125 |
| Total | o5.5 (-125) | u5.5 (+108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Make the most of your sports betting experience by exploring our comprehensive list of US betting apps, and the latest sportsbooks in 2025, ensuring you never miss a top new-user deal.
Lightning vs. Capitals picks and best bets
Our model's strongest edge in today's Lightning vs. Capitals matchup is on the moneyline.
Our expert predictions, matched against the best odds, reveal the best NHL picks and NHL best bets for every game throughout the season.
Unlimited access to our complete set of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.
Lightning vs. Capitals player props
Who will score the first goal in Lightning vs. Capitals?
According to our model, Tampa Bay's Jake Guentzel is most likely to score the first goal in Lightning vs. Capitals.
Our projections give Guentzel an 8.8% chance of scoring the first goal at Capital One Arena, while the Lightning star is a 42.5% chance of netting an anytime goal.
First goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 8.8% |
| Brayden Point | 8.0% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 6.9% |
Washington Capitals
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin | 6.4% |
| Aliaksei Protas | 6.2% |
| Tom Wilson | 5.8% |
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 42.5% |
| Brayden Point | 39.1% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 36.1% |
Washington Capitals
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Aliaksei Protas | 33.1% |
| Alex Ovechkin | 31.9% |
| Tom Wilson | 29.1% |
Lightning vs. Caps game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's matchup between the Capitals and Lightning at Capital One Arena is scheduled to start at 7:00PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Washington Capitals
- Date: Tuesday, October 14, 2025
- Time: 7:00PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Capital One Arena
Dimers' full preview of Tuesday's Lightning vs. Capitals matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.
Before making any Lightning vs. Caps picks, be sure to check out the latest NHL predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.
Conclusion
We predict a close game between the Lightning and Capitals on Tuesday, with each team having a 50% chance of winning.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lightning vs. Capitals insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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More on NHL
Keep up with the latest NHL betting news and parlay picks throughout the season. Plus, our Stanley Cup odds offer the latest probabilities for the Stanley Cup title.
Make the most of your sports betting experience by exploring our comprehensive list of US betting apps, and the latest sportsbooks in 2025, ensuring you never miss a top new-user deal.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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