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Lightning vs. Capitals Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Lightning vs. Capitals NHL game on October 14, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL
2
3
Oct 14, 11PM Capital One Arena
Oct 14, 11PM Capital One Arena
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lightning | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Capitals | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
0%
100%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lightning | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Capitals | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
OT1 01:19 Goal scored by Jakob Chychrun assisted by Tom Wilson and Dylan Strome
OT1 01:18 Shot missed by Jakob Chychrun
OT1 01:04 Shot missed by Dylan Strome
OT1 00:41 John Carlson shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
OT1 00:37 John Carlson shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
OT1 00:35 Shot missed by Aliaksei Protas
OT1 00:34 Shot on goal by John Carlson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
OT1 00:25 Shot missed by Dylan Strome
P3 19:26 Connor McMichael shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
P3 18:51 Shot on goal by Jakob Chychrun saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 17:23 J.J. Moser shot blocked by Brandon Duhaime
P3 17:16 Shot on goal by Pontus Holmberg saved by Logan Thompson
P3 16:57 Shot missed by Matt Roy
P3 16:53 Rasmus Sandin shot blocked by Emil Lilleberg
P3 14:39 Shot on goal by Martin Fehervary saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 14:32 Aliaksei Protas shot blocked by Victor Hedman
P3 14:18 Erik Cernak shot blocked by Connor McMichael
P3 13:38 Tom Wilson shot blocked by Victor Hedman
P3 12:31 Shot on goal by Tom Wilson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 11:33 Shot on goal by Emil Lilleberg saved by Logan Thompson
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
OT
GOALS
ALL
End of 1st OT.
Lightning won faceoff against Capitals in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Jakob Chychrun assisted by Tom Wilson and Dylan Strome
2-3
SHOT
Shot missed by Jakob Chychrun
SHOT
Shot missed by Dylan Strome
SHOT
John Carlson shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
SHOT
John Carlson shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
SHOT
Shot missed by Aliaksei Protas
SHOT
Shot on goal by John Carlson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Shot missed by Dylan Strome
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
End of 3rd Period.
SHOT
Connor McMichael shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
Brayden Point won faceoff against Connor McMichael in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jakob Chychrun saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
J.J. Moser shot blocked by Brandon Duhaime
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Nic Dowd in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Pontus Holmberg saved by Logan Thompson
SHOT
Shot missed by Matt Roy
SHOT
Rasmus Sandin shot blocked by Emil Lilleberg
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Giveaway by Trevor van Riemsdyk in defensive zone
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Nic Dowd in neutral zone
Stoppage - Hand Pass - TV timeout
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Shot on goal by Martin Fehervary saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Aliaksei Protas shot blocked by Victor Hedman
SHOT
Erik Cernak shot blocked by Connor McMichael
Connor McMichael won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Tom Wilson shot blocked by Victor Hedman
Stoppage - Net Dislodged Offensive Skater
SHOT
Shot on goal by Tom Wilson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Nic Dowd won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Emil Lilleberg saved by Logan Thompson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Martin Fehervary saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Brayden Point won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Victor Hedman shot blocked by teammate
SHOT
Shot missed by Lightning
Brayden Point won faceoff against Nic Dowd in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Lightning won faceoff against Capitals in neutral zone
SHOT
Brayden Point shot blocked by Rasmus Sandin
Nic Dowd won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
Nikita Kucherov won faceoff against Jakob Chychrun in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Hendrix Lapierre in defensive zone
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Capitals in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Shot on goal by John Carlson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
John Carlson shot blocked by Victor Hedman
SHOT
Connor McMichael shot blocked by Victor Hedman
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Nic Dowd in offensive zone
Penalty to Trevor van Riemsdyk 2 minutes for Misconduct
Penalty to Jakob Chychrun 2 minutes for Misconduct
Penalty to Curtis Douglas 2 minutes for Misconduct
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mitchell Chaffee saved by Logan Thompson
SHOT
Anthony Beauvillier shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
Conor Geekie won faceoff against Hendrix Lapierre in neutral zone
GOAL
Power play - Goal scored by Capitals
2-2
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Tom Wilson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Power play - Dylan Strome won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
SHOT
Ryan Leonard shot blocked by Emil Lilleberg
Brayden Point won faceoff against Nic Dowd in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot missed by J.J. Moser
SHOT
Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Logan Thompson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Dylan Strome saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
SHOT
Shot on goal by Justin Sourdif saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Dylan Strome in neutral zone
GOAL
Power play - Goal scored by Victor Hedman
2-1
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot missed by Tom Wilson
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Logan Thompson
Shorthanded - Nic Dowd won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
End of 2nd Period.
Power play - Brayden Point won faceoff against Nic Dowd in offensive zone
Penalty to Alex Ovechkin 2 minutes for Misconduct
SHOT
Shot on goal by Matt Roy saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
SHOT
Justin Sourdif shot blocked by Erik Cernak
SHOT
John Carlson shot blocked by Curtis Douglas
SHOT
Shot missed by Conor Geekie
SHOT
Shot missed by Ryan Leonard
Hendrix Lapierre won faceoff against Conor Geekie in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Aliaksei Protas assisted by Connor McMichael and Tom Wilson
1-1
SHOT
Anthony Cirelli shot blocked by John Carlson
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Connor McMichael in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Giveaway by Jakob Chychrun in defensive zone
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Pontus Holmberg in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot missed by Brayden Point
SHOT
Shorthanded - Aliaksei Protas shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
Shorthanded - Nic Dowd won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
Penalty to Ryan Leonard 2 minutes for Slashing
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Logan Thompson
SHOT
Shot missed by Brandon Duhaime
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Logan Thompson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ryan Leonard saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Shot missed by Erik Cernak
Conor Geekie won faceoff against Hendrix Lapierre in neutral zone
Stoppage - Puck in Benches
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Dylan Strome saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Connor McMichael in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
SHOT
Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Logan Thompson
SHOT
Shot missed by John Carlson
Hendrix Lapierre won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
Stoppage - Puck in Benches
Nic Dowd won faceoff against Brandon Hagel in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Curtis Douglas saved by Logan Thompson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Curtis Douglas saved by Logan Thompson
SHOT
Jake Guentzel shot blocked by Rasmus Sandin
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Alex Ovechkin
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by John Carlson
Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
Power play - Dylan Strome won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
Penalty to Emil Lilleberg 2 minutes for Tripping (Drawn by Nic Dowd)
SHOT
Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Erik Cernak
Pontus Holmberg won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Rasmus Sandin saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Shot missed by Matt Roy
SHOT
Shot on goal by Rasmus Sandin saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Lightning won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Matt Roy saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
SHOT
Shot missed by Ryan Leonard
SHOT
Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
SHOT
Shot on goal by Trevor van Riemsdyk saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Giveaway by Rasmus Sandin in offensive zone
Justin Sourdif credited with hit on Ryan McDonagh in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Aliaksei Protas saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Shot on goal by Aliaksei Protas saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Victor Hedman shot blocked by Trevor van Riemsdyk
SHOT
Brayden Point shot blocked by Trevor van Riemsdyk
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
End of 1st Period.
SHOT
Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
SHOT
John Carlson shot blocked by Gage Goncalves
Connor McMichael won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Capitals saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Connor McMichael won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
SHOT
Shot missed by Rasmus Sandin
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Justin Sourdif saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Connor McMichael in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jakob Chychrun saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Logan Thompson
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
SHOT
Power play - John Carlson shot blocked by J.J. Moser
Power play - Dylan Strome won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside
SHOT
Power play - Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Erik Cernak
Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Tom Wilson in defensive zone
Lightning won faceoff against Capitals in neutral zone
SHOT
Gage Goncalves shot blocked by Martin Fehervary
SHOT
Justin Sourdif shot blocked by Victor Hedman
Nic Dowd won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Logan Thompson
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Rasmus Sandin shot blocked by Gage Goncalves
SHOT
Shot on goal by Rasmus Sandin saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Shot on goal by Justin Sourdif saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Shot missed by Brandon Duhaime
Nic Dowd won faceoff against Conor Geekie in neutral zone
Stoppage - High Stick
Hendrix Lapierre won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Logan Thompson
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Jake Guentzel assisted by Ryan McDonagh and Anthony Cirelli
1-0
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Nic Dowd in offensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Benches - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot missed by Brayden Point
SHOT
Shot missed by Brayden Point
SHOT
Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Trevor van Riemsdyk
Brayden Point won faceoff against Nic Dowd in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Dylan Strome in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Logan Thompson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Logan Thompson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Emil Lilleberg saved by Logan Thompson
Nic Dowd credited with hit on Emil Lilleberg in neutral zone
SHOT
Lightning shot blocked by teammate
SHOT
Shot missed by Tom Wilson
SHOT
Shot on goal by John Carlson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Shot on goal by Tom Wilson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Connor McMichael won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
SHOT
Brayden Point shot blocked by Martin Fehervary
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
SHOT
Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Aliaksei Protas
SHOT
Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Dylan Strome in neutral zone
Game Setup.
Stats
| STATS | |
|---|
| 19 | Shots on Goal | 28 | |||
| 46% | Faceoff Win % | 54% | |||
| 2/1 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 3/1 | |||
| 10 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 8 | |||
| 8 | Hits | 23 | |||
| 17 | Shots Blocked | 8 | |||
| 19 | Giveaways | 14 |
| |
|---|
| 19 | Shots on Goal | 28 | |||
| 46% | Faceoff Win % | 54% | |||
| 2/1 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 3/1 | |||
| 10 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 8 | |||
| 8 | Hits | 23 | |||
| 17 | Shots Blocked | 8 | |||
| 19 | Giveaways | 14 |
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Lightning vs. Capitals: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Lightning vs. Capitals
- Date: Tuesday, October 14, 2025
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Capital One Arena
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Capitals favored at -1.5
- Total (Over/Under): 5.5
- Moneyline Odds: Lightning +108, Capitals -113
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Lightning: 50%
- Capitals: 50%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Lightning a win probability of 50%, while the Capitals have a win probability of 50%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Capitals in the NHL game at Capital One Arena on Tuesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Lightning vs. Capitals predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.
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