Lightning vs. Capitals prediction: Why Washington is favored to win Saturday's NHL matchup [11/22/2025]

The Washington Capitals will take on the Tampa Bay Lightning, in what is expected to be a close NHL game, at Capital One Arena on Saturday, commencing at 7:00PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model gives the Capitals a slight edge with a 51% win probability over the Lightning.

This article offers further insights into Saturday's Lightning vs. Capitals matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Lightning vs. Caps prediction: Who will win and cover?

As part of Dimers' NHL predictions coverage—and following a review of recent results—our pregame model has generated moneyline, puck line, and over/under probabilities for Saturday's clash between the Lightning and Capitals.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Capitals a 51% chance of beating the Lightning.

According to our model, the Lightning (+1.5) have a 70% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6-goal over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

Lightning vs. Capitals odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Lightning	Capitals
Puck Line	+1.5 (-235)	-1.5 (+200)
Moneyline	+104	-120
Total	o6 (-130)	u6 (+100)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Lightning vs. Capitals picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Lightning +1.5	-235
Moneyline	Lightning	+104
Total	Under 6	+100

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6 total goals.

Lightning vs. Capitals player props

Who will score a goal in Lightning vs. Capitals?

According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Capitals.

Our projections give Guentzel a 41.6% chance of scoring a goal at Capital One Arena, while the star is a 9.2% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	41.6%
Nikita Kucherov	37.8%
Brayden Point	36.1%
Brandon Hagel	25.9%
Anthony Cirelli	25.1%

Washington Capitals

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Tom Wilson	31.1%
Alex Ovechkin	29.8%
Aliaksei Protas	29.3%
Dylan Strome	27.2%
Connor McMichael	21.0%

First goal scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	First Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	9.2%
Nikita Kucherov	7.6%
Brayden Point	7.1%
Anthony Cirelli	5.2%
Brandon Hagel	4.7%

Washington Capitals

Player	First Goal Probability
Tom Wilson	6.1%
Alex Ovechkin	5.7%
Aliaksei Protas	5.6%
Dylan Strome	5.3%
Ryan Leonard	3.9%

Lightning vs. Caps game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's action between the Capitals and Lightning at Capital One Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:00PM ET.

• Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Washington Capitals
• Date: Saturday, November 22, 2025
• Time: 7:00PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Capital One Arena

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Conclusion

We predict the Capitals, with a 51% win probability, will likely beat the Lightning on Saturday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lightning vs. Capitals insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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