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Lightning vs. Capitals Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Lightning vs. Capitals NHL game on November 22, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL
5
3
Nov 23, 12AM Capital One Arena
Nov 23, 12AM Capital One Arena
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Lightning | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
Capitals | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
100%
0%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Lightning | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
Capitals | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
P3 19:55 Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
P3 19:43 Ryan Leonard shot blocked by Erik Cernak
P3 18:45 Shot on goal by Capitals saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 18:07 Shot missed by Lightning
P3 17:15 Nick Paul shot blocked by John Carlson
P3 16:32 Shot on goal by Rasmus Sandin saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 16:22 Shot on goal by Ethen Frank saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 15:51 Goal scored by Anthony Cirelli assisted by Brandon Hagel
P3 15:48 Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Jakob Chychrun
P3 15:47 Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
P3 15:19 Shot on goal by Justin Sourdif saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 14:53 J.J. Moser shot blocked by John Carlson
P3 14:36 Shot on goal by Ryan Leonard saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 12:03 Shot on goal by Charle-Edouard D'Astous saved by Charlie Lindgren
P3 11:04 Shot missed by Dylan Strome
P3 10:24 Power play - Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Charlie Lindgren
P3 10:08 Power play - Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
P3 09:20 Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Matt Roy saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 08:48 Shot missed by Dominic James
P3 08:47 Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by teammate
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
GOALS
ALL
End of 3rd Period.
End of 3rd Period.
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
SHOT
Ryan Leonard shot blocked by Erik Cernak
Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside
Nick Paul won faceoff against Connor McMichael in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Capitals saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot missed by Lightning
Connor McMichael won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Nick Paul shot blocked by John Carlson
Nick Paul won faceoff against Connor McMichael in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Rasmus Sandin saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ethen Frank saved by Jonas Johansson
Dominic James won faceoff against Hendrix Lapierre in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Anthony Cirelli assisted by Brandon Hagel
5-3
SHOT
Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Jakob Chychrun
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
Aliaksei Protas won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Justin Sourdif saved by Jonas Johansson
Nick Paul won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in defensive zone
Stoppage - Hand Pass
Connor McMichael won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
SHOT
J.J. Moser shot blocked by John Carlson
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ryan Leonard saved by Jonas Johansson
Emil Lilleberg credited with hit on Anthony Beauvillier in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Charle-Edouard D'Astous saved by Charlie Lindgren
Nick Paul won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in offensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
SHOT
Shot missed by Dylan Strome
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Charlie Lindgren
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Matt Roy saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot missed by Dominic James
SHOT
Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by teammate
Shorthanded - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in offensive zone
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Tom Wilson saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Jakob Chychrun
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Tom Wilson
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Alex Ovechkin
Power play - Dylan Strome won faceoff against Brandon Hagel in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Jakob Chychrun saved by Jonas Johansson
Power play - Dylan Strome won faceoff against Brandon Hagel in offensive zone
Penalty to Emil Lilleberg 2 minutes for Slashing (Drawn by Tom Wilson)
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Tom Wilson
Power play - Dylan Strome won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in offensive zone
Stoppage - TV timeout
Penalty to Anthony Cirelli 2 minutes for Tripping
SHOT
Aliaksei Protas shot blocked by Erik Cernak
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ryan Leonard saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Connor McMichael saved by Jonas Johansson
Nick Paul won faceoff against Connor McMichael in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Ethen Frank assisted by Sonny Milano and Jakob Chychrun
4-3
SHOT
Shot on goal by Dylan Strome saved by Jonas Johansson
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Jonas Johansson
Alex Ovechkin credited with hit on J.J. Moser in neutral zone
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck Frozen
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Charlie Lindgren
Shorthanded - Connor McMichael won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Charlie Lindgren
Power play - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Connor McMichael in offensive zone
Shorthanded - Brandon Hagel won faceoff against Dylan Strome in neutral zone
End of 2nd Period.
Penalty to Curtis Douglas 10 minutes for Misconduct
Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
Connor McMichael won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
Connor McMichael won faceoff against Dominic James in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
Anthony Beauvillier won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot missed by Alex Ovechkin
Tom Wilson credited with hit on Oliver Bjorkstrand in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Charlie Lindgren
Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in offensive zone
SHOT
Declan Carlile shot blocked by Trevor van Riemsdyk
SHOT
Shot missed by Lightning
SHOT
Dylan Strome shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
SHOT
Dylan Strome shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
SHOT
Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
SHOT
Shot on goal by Dominic James saved by Charlie Lindgren
SHOT
Aliaksei Protas shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
SHOT
Shot missed by Aliaksei Protas
SHOT
Shot missed by Hendrix Lapierre
SHOT
Shot on goal by John Carlson saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Hendrix Lapierre saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot on goal by John Carlson saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Anthony Beauvillier shot blocked by Emil Lilleberg
SHOT
Trevor van Riemsdyk shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
SHOT
Shot on goal by Tom Wilson saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Duhaime saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot missed by Jakob Chychrun
SHOT
Erik Cernak shot blocked by Aliaksei Protas
SHOT
Shot missed by Zemgus Girgensons
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Charlie Lindgren
SHOT
Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Justin Sourdif
SHOT
Brayden Point shot blocked by Aliaksei Protas
SHOT
Shot on goal by John Carlson saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Martin Fehervary shot blocked by J.J. Moser
SHOT
Shot missed by Trevor van Riemsdyk
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Dylan Strome in neutral zone
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Dylan Strome in neutral zone
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in neutral zone
Stoppage - Puck in Benches
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Charlie Lindgren
Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Connor McMichael in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Jakob Chychrun
4-2
SHOT
Shot missed by Anthony Beauvillier
SHOT
Shot missed by Jakob Chychrun
SHOT
Shot missed by John Carlson
Nick Paul won faceoff against Sonny Milano in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Justin Sourdif saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot missed by Lightning
Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Power play - Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Jonas Johansson
Shorthanded - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
Penalty to Brandon Hagel 2 minutes for Misconduct
Alex Ovechkin credited with hit on Charle-Edouard D'Astous in defensive zone
SHOT
Anthony Beauvillier shot blocked by Brayden Point
Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Dylan Strome in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
End of 1st Period.
SHOT
Shot missed by Ryan Leonard
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Connor McMichael in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck Frozen
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Connor McMichael in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ethen Frank saved by Jonas Johansson
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Hendrix Lapierre in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Nikita Kucherov
4-1
SHOT
Trevor van Riemsdyk shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
SHOT
Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
SHOT
Shot missed by Alex Ovechkin
SHOT
J.J. Moser shot blocked by Matt Roy
Nick Paul won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Shot on goal by Connor McMichael saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot missed by Zemgus Girgensons
SHOT
Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Trevor van Riemsdyk
SHOT
Ethen Frank shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Hendrix Lapierre in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside
SHOT
Shot missed by Jakob Chychrun
SHOT
Matt Roy shot blocked by Zemgus Girgensons
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ryan Leonard saved by Jonas Johansson
Brandon Hagel won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Brandon Hagel
3-1
Connor McMichael won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nick Paul saved by Logan Thompson
SHOT
Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
SHOT
Power play - Ryan Leonard shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
Power play - Connor McMichael won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Jakob Chychrun
Nick Paul won faceoff against Connor McMichael in neutral zone
GOAL
Power play - Goal scored by Oliver Bjorkstrand assisted by Nikita Kucherov and Darren Raddysh
2-1
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Logan Thompson
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Oliver Bjorkstrand
SHOT
Power play - Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Aliaksei Protas
SHOT
Justin Sourdif shot blocked by Declan Carlile
SHOT
Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Rasmus Sandin
Nick Paul won faceoff against Dylan Strome in offensive zone
Penalty to Ethen Frank 2 minutes for Misconduct
Power play - Connor McMichael won faceoff against Brandon Hagel in neutral zone
GOAL
Shorthanded - Goal scored by Brandon Hagel
1-1
Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ethen Frank saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
SHOT
Shot missed by Sonny Milano
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
Connor McMichael won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Justin Sourdif
SHOT
Tom Wilson shot blocked by teammate
SHOT
Shot missed by Aliaksei Protas
Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Shot on goal by Dylan Strome saved by Jonas Johansson
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Dylan Strome in neutral zone
Game Setup.
Stats
| STATS | |
|---|
| 16 | Shots on Goal | 32 | |||
| 54% | Faceoff Win % | 46% | |||
| 3/1 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 6/0 | |||
| 27 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 11 | |||
| 15 | Hits | 22 | |||
| 23 | Shots Blocked | 13 | |||
| 19 | Giveaways | 18 |
| |
|---|
| 16 | Shots on Goal | 32 | |||
| 54% | Faceoff Win % | 46% | |||
| 3/1 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 6/0 | |||
| 27 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 11 | |||
| 15 | Hits | 22 | |||
| 23 | Shots Blocked | 13 | |||
| 19 | Giveaways | 18 |
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Lightning vs. Capitals: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Lightning vs. Capitals
- Date: Saturday, November 22, 2025
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Capital One Arena
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Capitals favored at -1.5
- Total (Over/Under): 6
- Moneyline Odds: Lightning +105, Capitals -120
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Lightning: 49%
- Capitals: 51%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Lightning a win probability of 49%, while the Capitals have a win probability of 51%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Capitals are more likely to beat the Lightning in the NHL game at Capital One Arena on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Lightning vs. Capitals predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.
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