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Lightning vs. Golden Knights prediction: Vegas favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [11/6/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Tampa Bay Lightning vs Vegas Golden Knights predictions for NHL Thursday.
NHL action continues on Thursday at 10:00PM ET as the Tampa Bay Lightning lock horns with the Vegas Golden Knights at T-Mobile Arena.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model projects the Golden Knights as the most likely winner of the Lightning vs. Golden Knights game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including goal scorer projections, best bets and player prop picks.
Lightning vs. Golden Knights prediction: Who will win, cover the puck line?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NHL game between the Lightning and Golden Knights 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Golden Knights a 53% chance of beating the Lightning.
According to our model, the Lightning (+1.5) have a 68% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6-goal over/under has a 52% chance of staying under.
Lightning vs. Golden Knights odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lightning | Golden Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-235) | -1.5 (+210) |
| Moneyline | +102 | -118 |
| Total | o6 (-105) | u6 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lightning vs. Golden Knights picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Golden Knights -1.5 | +210 |
| Moneyline | Golden Knights | -118 |
| Total | Under 6 | -115 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Golden Knights -1.5 at the spread.
Lightning vs. Golden Knights player props
Who will score a goal in Lightning vs. Golden Knights?
According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Golden Knights.
Our projections give Guentzel a 37.6% chance of scoring a goal at T-Mobile Arena, while the star is an 8.4% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 37.6% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 34.8% |
| Brayden Point | 34.7% |
| Brandon Hagel | 29.4% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 26.5% |
Vegas Golden Knights
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Pavel Dorofeyev | 35.4% |
| Jack Eichel | 34.9% |
| Tomas Hertl | 29.8% |
| Mitch Marner | 24.5% |
| Ivan Barbashev | 24.2% |
First goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 8.4% |
| Brayden Point | 7.0% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 6.9% |
| Brandon Hagel | 5.3% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 5.0% |
Vegas Golden Knights
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Pavel Dorofeyev | 7.8% |
| Jack Eichel | 6.6% |
| Tomas Hertl | 5.8% |
| Mitch Marner | 4.7% |
| Ivan Barbashev | 4.4% |
Lightning vs. Golden Knights game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's matchup between the Golden Knights and Lightning at T-Mobile Arena is scheduled to commence at 10:00PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Vegas Golden Knights
- Date: Thursday, November 6, 2025
- Time: 10:00PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: T-Mobile Arena
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Conclusion
We predict the Golden Knights, with a 53% win probability, will likely beat the Lightning on Thursday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lightning vs. Golden Knights insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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More on NHL
Stay up-to-date with the latest NHL betting news and parlay picks throughout the season. Plus, our Stanley Cup odds provide the most accurate predictions for the Stanley Cup title.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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