Lightning vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Monday's NHL matchup [12/8/2025]

The Toronto Maple Leafs will take on the Tampa Bay Lightning, in what is expected to be a tight NHL game, at Scotiabank Arena on Monday, starting at 7:30PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model gives the Lightning a slight edge with a 53% win probability over the Maple Leafs.

This article offers further insights into Monday's Lightning vs. Maple Leafs matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's NHL matchup between the Lightning and Maple Leafs 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Lightning a 53% chance of defeating the Maple Leafs.

According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 68% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 53% chance of staying under.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Lightning	Maple Leafs
Puck Line	-1.5 (+190)	+1.5 (-210)
Moneyline	-125	+110
Total	o6.5 (-110)	u6.5 (-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Maple Leafs +1.5	-210
Moneyline	Maple Leafs	+110
Total	Under 6.5	-108

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs player props

Who will score a goal in Lightning vs. Maple Leafs?

According to our model, Auston Matthews is most likely to score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Maple Leafs.

Our projections give Matthews a 42.1% chance of scoring a goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the star is a 9.2% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	37.2%
Nikita Kucherov	34.7%
Brayden Point	32.9%
Brandon Hagel	31.9%
Anthony Cirelli	24.5%

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	42.1%
John Tavares	34.1%
William Nylander	33.2%
Matthew Knies	26.9%
Bobby McMann	19.5%

First goal scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	First Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	7.6%
Nikita Kucherov	7.0%
Brayden Point	6.5%
Brandon Hagel	5.9%
Anthony Cirelli	4.9%

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	First Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	9.2%
William Nylander	6.0%
John Tavares	5.8%
Matthew Knies	5.3%
Bobby McMann	3.6%

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs game-day updates and essential details

Monday's matchup between the Maple Leafs and Lightning at Scotiabank Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:30PM ET.

• Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
• Date: Monday, December 8, 2025
• Time: 7:30PM ET/4:30PM PT
• Venue: Scotiabank Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Lightning, with a 53% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs on Monday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lightning vs. Maple Leafs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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