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Lightning vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Monday's NHL matchup [12/8/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs predictions for NHL Monday.
The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning will meet in the NHL at Scotiabank Arena on Monday, with puck drop at 7:30PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model gives the Lightning a slight edge with a 52% win probability over the Maple Leafs.
This article offers further insights into Monday's Lightning vs. Maple Leafs matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Monday's NHL game between the Lightning and Maple Leafs 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Lightning a 52% chance of beating the Maple Leafs.
According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 69% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of six goals has a 51% chance of going over.
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lightning | Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+220) | +1.5 (-220) |
| Moneyline | -120 | +105 |
| Total | o6 (-120) | u6 (+100) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Maple Leafs +1.5 | -220 |
| Moneyline | Maple Leafs | +105 |
| Total | Under 6 | +100 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Maple Leafs +1.5 at the spread.
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs player props
Who will score a goal in Lightning vs. Maple Leafs?
According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Maple Leafs.
Our projections give Guentzel a 45.1% chance of scoring a goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the star is a 9.5% chance of registering the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 45.1% |
| Brandon Hagel | 40.1% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 30.0% |
| Nick Paul | 25.0% |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | 17.9% |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 40.9% |
| John Tavares | 32.8% |
| William Nylander | 31.6% |
| Matthew Knies | 28.2% |
| Bobby McMann | 19.0% |
First goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 9.5% |
| Brandon Hagel | 8.2% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 5.9% |
| Nick Paul | 4.6% |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | 2.8% |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 8.2% |
| William Nylander | 6.4% |
| John Tavares | 5.7% |
| Matthew Knies | 5.7% |
| Bobby McMann | 3.4% |
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs game-day updates and essential details
Monday's game between the Maple Leafs and Lightning at Scotiabank Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:30PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
- Date: Monday, December 8, 2025
- Time: 7:30PM ET/4:30PM PT
- Venue: Scotiabank Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs on Monday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lightning vs. Maple Leafs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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