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Lightning vs. Islanders prediction: Tampa Bay favored to win Saturday's NHL matchup [12/13/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Tampa Bay Lightning vs NY Islanders predictions for NHL Saturday.
The NY Islanders and Tampa Bay Lightning are scheduled to meet in the NHL at UBS Arena on Saturday, starting at 3:30PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven NHL model projects the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Lightning vs. Islanders game.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Lightning vs. Isles prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Saturday's NHL matchup between the Lightning and Islanders 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Lightning a 55% chance of defeating the Islanders.
According to our model, the Islanders (+1.5) have a 66% chance of covering the puck line, while the 5.5-goal over/under has a 53% chance of going over.
Lightning vs. Islanders odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lightning | Islanders |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+195) | +1.5 (-225) |
| Moneyline | -130 | +114 |
| Total | o5.5 (-125) | u5.5 (+105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lightning vs. Islanders picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Lightning -1.5 | +195 |
| Moneyline | Lightning | -130 |
| Total | Under 5.5 | +105 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Lightning -1.5 at the spread.
Lightning vs. Islanders player props
Who will score a goal in Lightning vs. Islanders?
According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Islanders.
Our projections give Guentzel a 39.3% chance of scoring a goal at UBS Arena, while the star is an 8.9% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 39.3% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 36.9% |
| Brandon Hagel | 33.4% |
| Brayden Point | 31.7% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 23.7% |
NY Islanders
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Anders Lee | 26.7% |
| Mathew Barzal | 25.9% |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 23.7% |
| Simon Holmstrom | 22.9% |
| Max Shabanov | 22.2% |
First goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 8.9% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 7.5% |
| Brayden Point | 6.4% |
| Brandon Hagel | 6.3% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 4.7% |
NY Islanders
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Anders Lee | 5.2% |
| Mathew Barzal | 5.0% |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 4.5% |
| Simon Holmstrom | 4.2% |
| Max Shabanov | 4.1% |
Lightning vs. Isles game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's matchup between the Islanders and Lightning at UBS Arena is scheduled to start at 3:30PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. NY Islanders
- Date: Saturday, December 13, 2025
- Time: 3:30PM ET/12:30PM PT
- Venue: UBS Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 55% win probability, will likely beat the Islanders on Saturday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lightning vs. Islanders insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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