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Lightning vs. Canadiens prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Tuesday's NHL matchup [12/9/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens predictions for NHL Tuesday.
The Montreal Canadiens will face the Tampa Bay Lightning, in what is expected to be a tight NHL game, at Bell Centre on Tuesday, beginning at 7:00PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model gives the Lightning a slight edge with a 52% win probability over the Canadiens.
This article offers further insights into Tuesday's Lightning vs. Canadiens matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Lightning vs. Habs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's NHL game between the Lightning and Canadiens 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Lightning a 52% chance of beating the Canadiens.
According to our model, the Lightning (+1.5) have a 72% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 54% chance of staying under.
Lightning vs. Canadiens odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lightning | Canadiens |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-265) | -1.5 (+225) |
| Moneyline | -110 | -108 |
| Total | o6.5 (-102) | u6.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lightning vs. Canadiens picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Lightning +1.5 | -265 |
| Moneyline | Lightning | -110 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -115 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.
Lightning vs. Canadiens player props
Who will score a goal in Lightning vs. Canadiens?
According to our model, Cole Caufield is most likely to score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Canadiens.
Our projections give Caufield a 40.5% chance of scoring a goal at Bell Centre, while the star is an 8.3% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 38.9% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 35.0% |
| Brandon Hagel | 33.3% |
| Brayden Point | 33.0% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 23.9% |
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 40.5% |
| Nick Suzuki | 29.2% |
| Ivan Demidov | 28.3% |
| Oliver Kapanen | 24.2% |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 24.1% |
First goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 8.1% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 6.9% |
| Brandon Hagel | 6.9% |
| Brayden Point | 6.0% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 4.1% |
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 8.3% |
| Nick Suzuki | 6.3% |
| Ivan Demidov | 5.0% |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 4.3% |
| Oliver Kapanen | 4.3% |
Lightning vs. Habs game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's matchup between the Canadiens and Lightning at Bell Centre is scheduled to begin at 7:00PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens
- Date: Tuesday, December 9, 2025
- Time: 7:00PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Bell Centre
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat the Canadiens on Tuesday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lightning vs. Canadiens insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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