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Lightning vs. Canadiens prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Tuesday's NHL matchup [12/9/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens predictions for NHL Tuesday.
The Montreal Canadiens will face the Tampa Bay Lightning, in what is expected to be a tight NHL game, at Bell Centre on Tuesday, starting at 7:00PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model gives the Lightning a slight edge with a 51% win probability over the Canadiens.
This article offers a closer look at Tuesday's Lightning vs. Canadiens matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Lightning vs. Habs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's NHL matchup between the Lightning and Canadiens 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Lightning a 51% chance of beating the Canadiens.
According to our model, the Lightning (+1.5) have a 71% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of six goals has a 51% chance of going over.
Lightning vs. Canadiens odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lightning | Canadiens |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-235) | -1.5 (+205) |
| Moneyline | +105 | -118 |
| Total | o6 (-125) | u6 (+105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lightning vs. Canadiens picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Lightning +1.5 | -235 |
| Moneyline | Lightning | +105 |
| Total | Under 6 | +105 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Lightning to win.
Lightning vs. Canadiens player props
Who will score a goal in Lightning vs. Canadiens?
According to our model, Cole Caufield is most likely to score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Canadiens.
Our projections give Caufield a 41.1% chance of scoring a goal at Bell Centre, while the star is an 8.4% chance of registering the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 39.0% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 35.8% |
| Brayden Point | 33.1% |
| Brandon Hagel | 32.7% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 24.7% |
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 41.1% |
| Nick Suzuki | 29.4% |
| Ivan Demidov | 27.5% |
| Oliver Kapanen | 24.2% |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 24.1% |
First goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 7.7% |
| Brandon Hagel | 7.0% |
| Brayden Point | 6.9% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 6.4% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 4.5% |
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 8.4% |
| Nick Suzuki | 5.6% |
| Ivan Demidov | 5.3% |
| Oliver Kapanen | 4.2% |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 4.2% |
Lightning vs. Habs game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's action between the Canadiens and Lightning at Bell Centre is scheduled to begin at 7:00PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens
- Date: Tuesday, December 9, 2025
- Time: 7:00PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Bell Centre
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 51% win probability, will likely beat the Canadiens on Tuesday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lightning vs. Canadiens insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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