Lightning vs. Avalanche prediction: Why Colorado is favored to win Tuesday's NHL matchup [11/4/2025]

The Colorado Avalanche will face the Tampa Bay Lightning in NHL action at Ball Arena on Tuesday, starting at 9:30PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model predicts the Avalanche as the most likely winner of the Lightning vs. Avalanche game.

This article offers further insights into Tuesday's matchup, including goal scorer projections, best bets and player prop picks.

Lightning vs. Avs prediction: Who will win, cover the puck line?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's NHL matchup between the Lightning and Avalanche 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Avalanche a 57% chance of defeating the Lightning.

According to our model, the Lightning (+1.5) have a 64% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6 goals has a 51% chance of going over.

Lightning vs. Avalanche odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Lightning	Avalanche
Puck Line	+1.5 (-196)	-1.5 (+170)
Moneyline	+125	-142
Total	o6 (-118)	u6 (-102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Lightning vs. Avalanche picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Avalanche -1.5	+170
Moneyline	Lightning	+125
Total	Under 6	-102

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Avalanche -1.5 at the spread.

Lightning vs. Avalanche player props

Who will score a goal in Lightning vs. Avalanche?

According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Avalanche.

Our projections give Guentzel a 37.0% chance of scoring a goal at Ball Arena, while the star is a 7.4% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	37.0%
Brayden Point	36.3%
Nikita Kucherov	35.3%
Brandon Hagel	31.2%
Anthony Cirelli	28.8%

Colorado Avalanche

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Nathan MacKinnon	34.8%
Martin Necas	33.4%
Valeri Nichushkin	32.0%
Cale Makar	27.3%
Artturi Lehkonen	27.0%

First goal scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	First Goal Probability
Brayden Point	7.8%
Nikita Kucherov	7.4%
Jake Guentzel	7.4%
Brandon Hagel	6.2%
Anthony Cirelli	4.8%

Colorado Avalanche

Player	First Goal Probability
Nathan MacKinnon	7.1%
Martin Necas	6.4%
Valeri Nichushkin	6.0%
Cale Makar	5.1%
Brock Nelson	5.1%

Lightning vs. Avs game-day updates and essential details

Tuesday's game between the Avalanche and Lightning at Ball Arena is scheduled to commence at 9:30PM ET.

• Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Colorado Avalanche
• Date: Tuesday, November 4, 2025
• Time: 9:30PM ET/6:30PM PT
• Venue: Ball Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Avalanche, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat the Lightning on Tuesday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lightning vs. Avalanche insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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