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Buccaneers vs. Dolphins prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win in NFL Week 17 [2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Miami Dolphins predictions for NFL Sunday.
NFL Week 17 action continues on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers square off with the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Buccaneers as the most likely winner of the Buccaneers vs. Dolphins game.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Bucs vs. Dolphins prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Buccaneers-Dolphins predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Buccaneers and Dolphins 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Buccaneers a 69% chance of beating the Dolphins in Week 17 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Buccaneers winning 24-19.
According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Buccaneers and Dolphins each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 44.5-point over/under also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 17 straight up picks.
Buccaneers vs. Dolphins odds
We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Buccaneers | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -5.5 (-112) | +5.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | -250 | +220 |
| Total | o44.5 (-108) | u44.5 (-112) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Buccaneers vs. Dolphins picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dolphins +5.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Dolphins | +220 |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -108 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Dolphins to win.
Buccaneers vs. Dolphins TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Buccaneers vs. Dolphins?
According to our model, De'Von Achane is most likely to score an anytime TD in Buccaneers vs. Dolphins.
Our projections give Achane a 51.4% chance of getting in for six at Hard Rock Stadium, while the running back is a 12.6% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Mike Evans (WR) | 40.6% |
| Bucky Irving (RB) | 36.2% |
| Sean Tucker (RB) | 28.8% |
| Chris Godwin (WR) | 26.5% |
| Emeka Egbuka (WR) | 24.5% |
Miami Dolphins
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| De'Von Achane (RB) | 51.4% |
| Jaylen Waddle (WR) | 30.2% |
| Darren Waller (TE) | 27.0% |
| Malik Washington (WR) | 14.9% |
| Jaylen Wright (RB) | 14.5% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Mike Evans (WR) | 9.9% |
| Bucky Irving (RB) | 8.5% |
| Sean Tucker (RB) | 6.4% |
| Chris Godwin (WR) | 5.8% |
| Emeka Egbuka (WR) | 5.3% |
Miami Dolphins
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| De'Von Achane (RB) | 12.6% |
| Jaylen Waddle (WR) | 6.3% |
| Darren Waller (TE) | 5.5% |
| Malik Washington (WR) | 2.8% |
| Jaylen Wright (RB) | 2.7% |
Buccaneers vs Dolphins player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Buccaneers and Dolphins. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 17 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Buccaneers' Baker Mayfield is projected for 230 passing yards, while the Dolphins' Quinn Ewers is expected to throw for 203 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | 230 |
| Quinn Ewers (MIA) | 203 |
Buccaneers rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 64 |
| Rachaad White | 19 |
| Baker Mayfield | 18 |
Dolphins rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 73 |
| Jaylen Wright | 19 |
| Quinn Ewers | 8 |
Buccaneers receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 63 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 42 |
| Chris Godwin | 41 |
| Jalen McMillan | 26 |
| Cade Otton | 24 |
Dolphins receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 64 |
| Darren Waller | 35 |
| De'Von Achane | 29 |
| Malik Washington | 23 |
| Greg Dulcich | 20 |
Bucs vs. Dolphins game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 17 action between the Dolphins and Buccaneers at Hard Rock Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:00 PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Miami Dolphins
- Date: Sunday, December 28, 2025
- Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Buccaneers, with a 69% win probability, will likely beat the Dolphins in Week 17 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Buccaneers vs. Dolphins insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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