Buccaneers vs. Dolphins prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win in NFL Week 17 [2025]

The Miami Dolphins and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are scheduled to meet in Week 17 of the NFL season at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday, starting at 1:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Buccaneers as the most likely winner of the Buccaneers vs. Dolphins game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Bucs vs. Dolphins prediction: Who will win and cover?

Since our Buccaneers-Dolphins predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Buccaneers and Dolphins 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Buccaneers a 69% chance of defeating the Dolphins in Week 17 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Buccaneers winning 24-19.

According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Buccaneers and Dolphins each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 44.5 points has a 54% chance of staying under.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 17 straight up picks.

Buccaneers vs. Dolphins odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Buccaneers	Dolphins
Spread	-5.5 (-114)	+5.5 (-102)
Moneyline	-250	+220
Total	o44.5 (-102)	u44.5 (-118)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Buccaneers vs. Dolphins picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Dolphins +5.5	-102
Moneyline	Dolphins	+220
Total	Under 44.5	-118

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Dolphins +5.5 at the spread.

Buccaneers vs. Dolphins TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Buccaneers vs. Dolphins?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, De'Von Achane is most likely to score an anytime TD in Buccaneers vs. Dolphins.

Our projections give Achane a 51.2% chance of scoring a TD at Hard Rock Stadium, while the running back is a 12.3% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Mike Evans (WR)	40.5%
Bucky Irving (RB)	36.7%
Sean Tucker (RB)	28.4%
Chris Godwin (WR)	25.7%
Emeka Egbuka (WR)	24.1%

Miami Dolphins

Player	Anytime TD Probability
De'Von Achane (RB)	51.2%
Jaylen Waddle (WR)	30.1%
Darren Waller (TE)	27.2%
Jaylen Wright (RB)	14.8%
Malik Washington (WR)	14.3%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Player	First TD Probability
Mike Evans (WR)	10.1%
Bucky Irving (RB)	8.9%
Sean Tucker (RB)	6.5%
Chris Godwin (WR)	5.8%
Emeka Egbuka (WR)	5.4%

Miami Dolphins

Player	First TD Probability
De'Von Achane (RB)	12.3%
Jaylen Waddle (WR)	6.1%
Darren Waller (TE)	5.4%
Jaylen Wright (RB)	2.7%
Malik Washington (WR)	2.6%

Buccaneers vs Dolphins player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Buccaneers and Dolphins. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 17 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Buccaneers' Baker Mayfield is projected for 228 passing yards. The Dolphins' Quinn Ewers is expected to throw for 204 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Baker Mayfield (TB)	228
Quinn Ewers (MIA)	204

Buccaneers rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Bucky Irving	65
Rachaad White	19
Baker Mayfield	19

Dolphins rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
De'Von Achane	73
Jaylen Wright	20
Quinn Ewers	9

Buccaneers receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Mike Evans	63
Chris Godwin	41
Emeka Egbuka	40
Jalen McMillan	26
Cade Otton	24

Dolphins receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Jaylen Waddle	64
Darren Waller	35
De'Von Achane	30
Malik Washington	23
Greg Dulcich	19

Bucs vs. Dolphins game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 17 game between the Dolphins and Buccaneers at Hard Rock Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Miami Dolphins
• Date: Sunday, December 28, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Hard Rock Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Buccaneers, with a 69% win probability, will likely beat the Dolphins in Week 17 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Buccaneers vs. Dolphins insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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