NFL picks straight up including Christmas Day games: Week 17, 2025

At Dimers, our Week 17 NFL picks are grounded in data-driven insight, with straight-up picks for all 16 games informed by our latest NFL predictions.

Get an edge in your NFL pick 'em contests by following our data-driven NFL Week 17 picks straight up, powered by thousands of game simulations.

Week 17 of the NFL season begins with the Dallas Cowboys facing the Washington Commanders on Thursday and wraps up with the Los Angeles Rams taking on the Atlanta Falcons on Monday night.

Full list of NFL Week 17 picks straight up

• Cowboys (69% win probability)
• Lions (56%)
• Broncos (91%)
• Chargers (55%)
• Packers (62%)
• Buccaneers (67%)
• Patriots (90%)
• Steelers (67%)
• Saints (63%)
• Jaguars (70%)
• Bengals (69%)
• Seahawks (75%)
• Raiders (53%)
• Bills (61%)
• 49ers (60%)
• Rams (76%)

NFL picks this week straight up: Week 17, 2025

Here are our Week 17 NFL picks, highlighting how likely each team is to win their game this week.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders

The Cowboys kick off Week 17 against the Commanders at Northwest Stadium on Thursday. According to our NFL model, the Cowboys have a 69% chance of winning, while the Commanders have a 31% chance.

For Week 17's opening game, our model highlights NFL player props with Javonte Williams (RB) as the most likely player from the Cowboys to score the first TD at 12.4%, while Chris Rodriguez (RB) is the top candidate from the Commanders at 9.2%.

The Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders game at Northwest Stadium is scheduled for Thursday, December 25 at 1:00pm. All times stated in this article are in Eastern Standard Time (EST).

Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings

For this week's game between the Lions and the Vikings, Detroit is more likely to win. Our prediction model gives the Lions a 56% chance of winning. On the other hand, there is a 44% chance that the Vikings will win.

The Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings matchup at U.S. Bank Stadium will take place on Thursday, December 25 at 4:30pm.

As the playoffs apporoach, track the top teams with our updated NFL futures, highlighting top Super Bowl contenders.

Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs

We are picking the Broncos to win their game against the Chiefs this week, with our famous NFL model projecting a 91% win probability for the road team. The Chiefs have a 9% chance of winning.

For betting purposes, the Chiefs are listed as +12.5 underdogs, with the Broncos' moneyline at -800.

The Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is slated for Thursday, December 25 at 8:15pm.

Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Chargers

According to our predictive analytics model, the Chargers are the team to beat in this game, with their win probability at 55%. The Texans, on the other hand, have a 45% chance of winning.

The Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Chargers game at SoFi Stadium is set for Saturday, December 27 at 4:30pm.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers

The Packers have a 62% chance of winning on Saturday night, compared to the Ravens' 38% chance of victory. This makes the Green Bay Packers our pick to win at Lambeau Field.

The Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers matchup at Lambeau Field is scheduled for Saturday, December 27 at 8:00pm.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Miami Dolphins

The Buccaneers are favored to win their Week 17 game, with our predictive analytics model giving them a 67% chance, while the Dolphins enter the weekend with a 33% chance of causing an upset at Hard Rock Stadium.

When it comes to betting on this game, the Buccaneers' moneyline odds are set at -245, with the home team Dolphins listed as +5.5 underdogs.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Miami Dolphins game at Hard Rock Stadium will take place on Sunday, December 28 at 1:00pm.

New England Patriots vs. New York Jets

After 10,000 simulations of Patriots vs. Jets this Sunday, our model projects the Patriots as the more likely winners with a probability of 90%. Their opponents, the Jets, have a 10% chance of getting the win at home.

The New England Patriots vs. New York Jets matchup at MetLife Stadium is slated for Sunday, December 28 at 1:00pm.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns

Our model is picking the Steelers, who have a 67% chance of winning the matchup, while the Browns have a 33% chance of an upset win.

The Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns game at Huntington Bank Field will take place on Sunday, December 28 at 1:00pm.

New Orleans Saints vs. Tennessee Titans

The next game of Week 17 sees the Saints take on the Titans at Nissan Stadium.

We predict the Saints to win with a probability of 63%, while the Titans are projected to have a win chance of 37%.

As for the Vegas betting odds here, the Titans are listed as +2.5 underdogs, with the Saints' moneyline odds posted at -145.

The New Orleans Saints vs. Tennessee Titans game at Nissan Stadium is scheduled for Sunday, December 28 at 1:00pm.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts

The likely winner of this matchup is the Jaguars, who have a projected win chance of 70%, according to DimersBOT. On the other side of this matchup, the Colts have a projected win probability of 30%.

The Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts matchup at Lucas Oil Stadium is set for Sunday, December 28 at 1:00pm.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Bengals

We have run our powerful NFL model over this week’s Cardinals-Bengals clash 10,000 times, with the Bengals coming out as the team to pick. Of those 10,000 simulations, the Bengals won 6,919 times, with the Cardinals winning on 3,081 occasions.

The Arizona Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Bengals game at Paycor Stadium is scheduled for Sunday, December 28 at 1:00pm.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Carolina Panthers

Next up is the game between the Seahawks and Panthers, with our model projecting the road team as the more likely victor, with the Seahawks rated as having a 75% chance of getting the W. The Panthers, on the other hand, are projected to have a 25% chance of winning.

For those interested in betting on this matchup, the oddsmakers have the Seahawks' moneyline odds set at -350 for this road game, while the hosting Panthers are listed as +7 underdogs.

The Seattle Seahawks vs. Carolina Panthers game at Bank of America Stadium will take place on Sunday, December 28 at 1:00pm.

New York Giants vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Our next straight up pick this week is for the Raiders to get the win against the Giants. After running 10,000 simulations of this matchup, the Las Vegas have a win probability of 53%, with the Giants at 47%.

The New York Giants vs. Las Vegas Raiders game at Allegiant Stadium is slated for Sunday, December 28 at 4:05pm.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Buffalo Bills

With a win probability of 61% on Sunday afternoon, our straight up pick for this matchup is the Bills, while their opponent, the Eagles, have a projected win chance of 39%.

The Philadelphia Eagles vs. Buffalo Bills game at Highmark Stadium will take place on Sunday, December 28 at 4:25pm.

For a different angle on this week's NFL action, explore Dimers' NFL trends to spot the latest player prop trends.

Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers

The team to pick here is the 49ers, who have a 60% chance of winning their matchup against the Bears this Sunday night.

Looking at the betting odds for this Sunday Night Football clash, the 49ers are listed as -3 favorites at home, with the Bears' moneyline odds available at +148.

The Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers game at Levi's Stadium is scheduled for Sunday, December 28 at 8:20pm.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Atlanta Falcons

Our pick to win the final game of Week 17 is the Rams, who have a win probability of 76%. Their opponents are projected to have a 24% chance of getting the W.

The Los Angeles Rams vs. Atlanta Falcons game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium is set for Monday, December 29 at 8:15pm.

For more insights into this week's NFL predictions, check out the latest from the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast:

NFL straight up picks and predictions for Week 17

The NFL Week 17 predictions straight up in this article are accurate at the time of publication but may change.

Dimers.com is the best site for NFL predictions, with our straight up picks trusted by football fans across the country.

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Please note that all NFL odds and probabilities mentioned on this page are subject to change.