Buccaneers vs. Panthers prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win in NFL Week 16 [2025]

The Carolina Panthers will take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in NFL Week 16 action at Bank of America Stadium on Sunday, starting at 1:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Buccaneers as the most likely winner of the Buccaneers vs. Panthers game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Bucs vs. Panthers prediction: Who will win and cover?

Since our Buccaneers-Panthers predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Buccaneers and Panthers 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Buccaneers a 61% chance of defeating the Panthers in Week 16 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Buccaneers winning 23-20.

According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Buccaneers and Panthers each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 44.5 points also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 16 straight up picks.

Buccaneers vs. Panthers odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Buccaneers	Panthers
Spread	-3 (-104)	+3 (-115)
Moneyline	-155	+134
Total	o44.5 (-112)	u44.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Buccaneers vs. Panthers picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Buccaneers -3	-104
Moneyline	Buccaneers	-155
Total	Under 44.5	-105

According to our best NFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Buccaneers to win.

Buccaneers vs. Panthers TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Buccaneers vs. Panthers?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 16, Mike Evans is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Buccaneers vs. Panthers.

Our projections give Evans a 44.8% chance of scoring a TD at Bank of America Stadium, while the wide receiver is a 10.0% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Mike Evans (WR)	44.8%
Bucky Irving (RB)	41.1%
Chris Godwin (WR)	32.1%
Emeka Egbuka (WR)	28.4%
Sean Tucker (RB)	26.0%

Carolina Panthers

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Rico Dowdle (RB)	41.7%
Tetairoa McMillan (WR)	38.0%
Jalen Coker (WR)	26.6%
Chuba Hubbard (RB)	21.2%
Xavier Legette (WR)	20.1%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Player	First TD Probability
Mike Evans (WR)	10.0%
Bucky Irving (RB)	8.9%
Chris Godwin (WR)	6.5%
Emeka Egbuka (WR)	5.6%
Sean Tucker (RB)	5.1%

Carolina Panthers

Player	First TD Probability
Rico Dowdle (RB)	9.5%
Tetairoa McMillan (WR)	8.4%
Jalen Coker (WR)	5.5%
Chuba Hubbard (RB)	4.2%
Xavier Legette (WR)	3.9%

Buccaneers vs Panthers player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Buccaneers and Panthers. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 16 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Buccaneers' Baker Mayfield is projected for 233 passing yards, while the Panthers' Bryce Young is expected to throw for 214 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Baker Mayfield (TB)	233
Bryce Young (CAR)	214

Buccaneers rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Bucky Irving	67
Baker Mayfield	18
Sean Tucker	17

Panthers rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Rico Dowdle	59
Chuba Hubbard	33
Bryce Young	16

Buccaneers receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Mike Evans	68
Emeka Egbuka	41
Chris Godwin	39
Cade Otton	26
Jalen McMillan	26

Panthers receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Tetairoa McMillan	62
Jalen Coker	45
Xavier Legette	28
Ja'Tavion Sanders	19
Rico Dowdle	17

Bucs vs. Panthers game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 16 matchup between the Panthers and Buccaneers at Bank of America Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers
• Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Bank of America Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Buccaneers, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat the Panthers in Week 16 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Buccaneers vs. Panthers insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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