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Buccaneers vs. Panthers prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win in NFL Week 16 [2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers predictions for NFL Sunday.
The Carolina Panthers will take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in NFL Week 16 action at Bank of America Stadium on Sunday, starting at 1:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Buccaneers as the most likely winner of the Buccaneers vs. Panthers game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Bucs vs. Panthers prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Buccaneers-Panthers predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Buccaneers and Panthers 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Buccaneers a 61% chance of beating the Panthers in Week 16 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Buccaneers winning 24-21.
According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Buccaneers and Panthers each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 45.5 points also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 16 straight up picks.
Buccaneers vs. Panthers odds
We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Buccaneers | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -3 (-102) | +3 (-115) |
| Moneyline | -146 | +130 |
| Total | o45.5 (-108) | u45.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Buccaneers vs. Panthers picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buccaneers -3 | -102 |
| Moneyline | Buccaneers | -146 |
| Total | Over 45.5 | -108 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Buccaneers to win.
Buccaneers vs. Panthers TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Buccaneers vs. Panthers?
According to our model, Rico Dowdle is most likely to score an anytime TD in Buccaneers vs. Panthers.
Our projections give Dowdle a 40.5% chance of scoring a TD at Bank of America Stadium, while the running back is a 9.2% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Mike Evans (WR) | 39.1% |
| Bucky Irving (RB) | 37.8% |
| Emeka Egbuka (WR) | 27.9% |
| Sean Tucker (RB) | 26.7% |
| Chris Godwin (WR) | 26.1% |
Carolina Panthers
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle (RB) | 40.5% |
| Tetairoa McMillan (WR) | 35.1% |
| Chuba Hubbard (RB) | 26.2% |
| Jalen Coker (WR) | 24.3% |
| Xavier Legette (WR) | 20.5% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Mike Evans (WR) | 8.9% |
| Bucky Irving (RB) | 8.5% |
| Emeka Egbuka (WR) | 5.8% |
| Sean Tucker (RB) | 5.6% |
| Chris Godwin (WR) | 5.4% |
Carolina Panthers
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle (RB) | 9.2% |
| Tetairoa McMillan (WR) | 7.7% |
| Chuba Hubbard (RB) | 5.4% |
| Jalen Coker (WR) | 4.9% |
| Xavier Legette (WR) | 4.1% |
Buccaneers vs Panthers player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Buccaneers and Panthers. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 16 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Buccaneers' Baker Mayfield is projected for 234 passing yards, while the Panthers' Bryce Young is expected to throw for 213 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | 234 |
| Bryce Young (CAR) | 213 |
Buccaneers rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 68 |
| Baker Mayfield | 18 |
| Sean Tucker | 18 |
Panthers rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 58 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 33 |
| Bryce Young | 16 |
Buccaneers receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 69 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 44 |
| Chris Godwin | 40 |
| Jalen McMillan | 28 |
| Cade Otton | 26 |
Panthers receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | 62 |
| Jalen Coker | 44 |
| Xavier Legette | 27 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 19 |
| Rico Dowdle | 17 |
Bucs vs. Panthers game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 16 game between the Panthers and Buccaneers at Bank of America Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:00 PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers
- Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025
- Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Venue: Bank of America Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Buccaneers, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat the Panthers in Week 16 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Buccaneers vs. Panthers insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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