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Read Article Netherlands vs. Sweden prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Group Stage]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Netherlands vs Sweden predictions for World Cup 2026 Saturday.
the Netherlands and Sweden will meet in Group F of the World Cup 2026 at NRG Stadium on Saturday, starting at 1:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced World Cup 2026 model predicts the Netherlands as the most likely winner of the Netherlands vs. Sweden game.
This article offers further insights into Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.
the Netherlands vs. Sweden prediction: Who will win?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Saturday's World Cup 2026 matchup between the Netherlands and Sweden, forming part of our World Cup 2026 predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model suggests a 59.8% chance of the Netherlands winning, a 20.1% chance for Sweden, and a 20.2% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 65.1% chance of going over, with a 61.5% probability that both teams find the net. In the win to nil market, the Netherlands holds a 27.1% probability to win without conceding, with Sweden given a 7.9% chance.
For bettors looking to cover multiple outcomes, the most likely double chance result is the Netherlands to win or draw at 79.9%.
Sweden vs. Netherlands odds
We have researched the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| the Netherlands | Sweden | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| -140 | +380 | +300 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -155 | +128 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Netherlands vs. Sweden picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Moneyline: the Netherlands @ -140 via DraftKings
- Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ -155 via BetMGM
- Win to Nil: Sweden @ +700 via BetMGM
- Double Chance: Netherlands or Sweden @ -400 via FanDuel
- Both Teams To Score: Yes @ -160 via BetMGM
According to our World Cup 2026 best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 2.5 total goals.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 2-1 Netherlands win being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| the Netherlands 2-1 Sweden | 9.7% |
| the Netherlands 1-1 Sweden | 9% |
| the Netherlands 2-0 Sweden | 8.2% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 61.5% chance of both sides finding the net and a 38.5% chance that at least one doesn’t.
Netherlands vs. Sweden player props: Anytime goal scorer predictions
Our World Cup 2026 player projections for Saturday highlight the top candidates to score a goal in the Netherlands-Sweden:
the Netherlands
- Cody Gakpo: 28.1% probability
- Donyell Malen: 27.9% probability
- Brian Brobbey: 27.3% probability
- Tijjani Reijnders: 17.0% probability
- Denzel Dumfries: 11.5% probability
Sweden
- Viktor Gyokeres: 22.0% probability
- Alexander Isak: 19.6% probability
- Benjamin Nygren: 11.7% probability
- Alexander Bernhardsson: 8.9% probability
- Yasin Ayari: 7.5% probability
Netherlands vs. Sweden game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's soccer World Cup matchup between the Netherlands and Sweden at NRG Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:00 PM ET.
- Who: Netherlands vs. Sweden
- Date: Saturday, June 20, 2026
- Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Venue: NRG Stadium
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
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Conclusion
According to our computer model, the Netherlands has a 59.8% win probability on Saturday, Sweden has a 20.1% win probability, and there is a 20.2% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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