Super Bowl LX Predictions: Three matchups picked by the Dimers model

As the NFL Playoffs begin, the four-week run to Super Bowl 60 is on, with 14 teams hoping to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in Levi's Stadium on Sunday, February 8, 2026.

The sportsbooks opened the year with Baltimore, Buffalo, and Philadelphia all at +700 odds to win it all, with Kansas City close behind. Two of those teams missed the playoffs and neither of the other two is a current Super Bowl favorite.

The Dimers futures model cashed a legendary +9350 division winners parlay to end the NFL season, and we're using our Super Bowl predictions powered by the same model to correctly identify the Super Bowl LX finalists and cash a longshot bet.

Below, we break down three Super Bowl LX matchups, from the Dimers model favorite to a pair of longer odds plays, each featuring a team with an edge to win it all.

Bet these Super Bowl LX Matchups

Each of these teams is backed by at least one of two key datapoints: a Top 5 probability to win the Super Bowl, and an edge identified by the Dimers model. Some of these teams land in both categories, and the matchup featuring those two is what we would consider our best Super Bowl bet.

The Favorite: Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks (+850 on FanDuel)

It's no surprise to see these teams at the top of their respective conference.

Both the Seahawks and Broncos boasted elite defenses and finished as the No. 1 seed, thus earning a first-round bye and shortening their road to the Super Bowl by one game.

Over the past 10 years, 14 of 20 No. 1 seeds reached the Conference Championship, with eight of them reaching the Super Bowl.

This would be a rematch of Super Bowl XLVIII, a 43-8 blowout by Seattle, the current favorite to win it all on the sportsbooks (+390) and the Dimers model at 14.3%, with a 26.8% probability to win the NFC, 7.4% higher than Los Angeles.

Denver checks in at 10.8% to win the Super Bowl (+650), tied for the fourth-highest mark with Buffalo, but draws a notably higher probability to win the AFC, at 36.0% compared to 20.3%.

Neither of these teams gets any value - the Dimers model says the Seahawks should be +600 and the Broncos +825 to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, but you're backing the teams with the best overall chance to reach the big game.

As we always point out, shopping around for the best odds is important - bettors can get this at +850, while it's as short as +700 on some sportsbooks.

The Best Value: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Buffalo Bills (+3500 on BetMGM)

This would be the best overall bet by the Dimers model.

Both the Philadelphia Eagles and Buffalo Bills land in our Top 5 overall Super Bowl champion probabilities, as well as drawing a Dimers model edge with their odds better than our model says they should be.

They're notably the only two teams that reached last year's conference championships to return to this year's playoffs, and played a fiercely competitive game in Week 17.

Philadelphia lands as our third most-likely Super Bowl champion at 12.2% which would be  fair price at +720, yet they have odds of +950 available for a 2.8% edge. In the NFC market, they are just 1.1% behind the Rams, but get odds of +475 compared to +240 for Los Angeles.

Similarly, Buffalo gets an identical probability as Denver to win the Super Bowl at 10.8%, yet their odds of +1000 imply just 9.1%. Compare their odds in the AFC market where they are 20.3% and +500 to win, while the Houston Texans are 15.4% at nearly the same odds of +550.

Both these teams will have to win three games just to reach the Super Bowl, but each presents a valuable opportunity within our Top 5 probabilities to win.

Make sure you get the best odds! This bet ranges from +2700 to +3500, with the best odds on BetMGM.

The Longshot: San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Chargers (+20000 on DraftKings)

If you're looking for a major longshot, you might be interested in betting on the "California Bowl" and homefield advantage for one team.

Both the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Chargers sit in the bottom half of our most likely Super Bowl winners, each with about a 5% probability to win it all and the same odds of +3000.

Yet, they both get better odds and a higher probability than some teams the sportsbooks have as more likely to win, like the Patriots, Jaguars and Bears, all priced shorter than these two.

In the conference championship market, the Chargers are 10.6% to win at +1300 (fair odds of +840) and the 49ers are 9.8% at +1500 (fair odds of +920), identifying clear value just to reach the Super Bowl, let alone win it all.

Both teams are dealing with significant injuries and each is more likely to lose their first-round matchup according to the Dimers model's moneyline probabilities, but each offers a significant edge to make a run.

Remember to bet this at the best odds; we found it as short as +15000, a $250 difference in payout off a $5 bet.

Dimers' 2026 NFL Playoffs Betting Resources

• NFL Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every round
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every individual matchup
• Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Futures Odds: Who will win Super Bowl LX?
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.